Heerenveen 1-3 Vitesse — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eredivisie, 12 May 2024

Heerenveen
1-3 HT 1-1
Vitesse
📅12/05/2024 · 🕒15:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-1 ✗ 2nd Score 2-2 ✗
Netherlands - Eredivisie – 2023/2024

Heerenveen vs Vitesse Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
55%
1.61
Draw
22%
4.08
Away
23%
4.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
39%
2.63
Over 2.5
61%
1.44
Both Teams to Score
Yes
55%
1.49
No
45%
2.44
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
17%
2-3 Goals
39%
4-5 Goals
29%
6+ Goals
15%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
27%
1/2
6%
1/X
7%
X/1
16%
X/2
7%
X/X
7%
2/1
12%
2/2
10%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
55%
Home Win
58%
-2.9pp
22%
Draw
21%
+0.2pp
23%
Away Win
21%
+2.6pp
39%
Under 2.5
34%
+4.8pp
61%
Over 2.5
66%
-4.8pp
55%
BTTS Yes
63%
-8.0pp
45%
BTTS No
37%
+8.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Heerenveen v Vitesse — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Heerenveen EU Bookmakers 62%
Head to Head
AWAY Vitesse EU Bookmakers 24%
-3% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / -11%
1.82/1.11 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.00/1.82
-14% / -9% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +1% / -22%
54% Ball Possession 46%
16 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 3
388 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 317 · 76%
25.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 22.1
20.4 Crosses 19.3
1.5 Yellow Cards 2.2

Heerenveen vs Vitesse Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Heerenveen
3W-0D-3L
AWAY Vitesse
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.44 xG 1.62
51% Ball Possession 49%
12 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 6
6 Corners 5
338 Passes 310
78% Pass Accuracy 76%
21 Box Touches 27
20 Crosses 18
1 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
21.12.2023 Vitesse Vitesse 1-0 HT 0-0 Heerenveen Heerenveen HOK
11.11.2023 Vitesse Vitesse 1-3 HT 1-1 Heerenveen Heerenveen HOL
28.01.2023 Heerenveen Heerenveen 1-3 HT 1-2 Vitesse Vitesse HOL
20.08.2022 Vitesse Vitesse 0-4 HT 0-2 Heerenveen Heerenveen HOL
08.05.2022 Vitesse Vitesse 1-2 HT 1-0 Heerenveen Heerenveen HOL
30.10.2021 Heerenveen Heerenveen 1-2 HT 1-0 Vitesse Vitesse HOL

Heerenveen 1-3 Vitesse — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Heerenveen
1-3
AWAY Vitesse
2.14 xG 2.01
52% Ball Possession 48%
23 Total Shots 16
5 Shots on Target 7
7 Corners 2
345 Passes 315
82% Pass Accuracy 80%
45 Box Touches 30
11 Crosses 9
0 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Heerenveen vs Vitesse
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Vitesse got the better of Heerenveen 3-1 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

By our pre-match numbers this was an upset: we had Heerenveen at 55% and the game still went the other way. Single results are noisy — probabilities earn their keep across thousands of matches, not one. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (61%), both teams to score (55%) came in.

On the day, Heerenveen had 52% of the ball to Vitesse's 48%, shots finished 23-16, expected goals 2.14 to 2.01.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 3 apiece. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for Heerenveen and 1.33 for Vitesse.

What was the final score of Heerenveen vs Vitesse?

Heerenveen 1-3 Vitesse in the Netherlands - Eredivisie on 12/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Heerenveen vs Vitesse?

Before kick-off our model rated a Heerenveen win the most likely single outcome at about 55%, with the full match-result split Heerenveen 55%, draw 22%, Vitesse 23%. The final score 1-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Heerenveen) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Heerenveen) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
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