Excelsior 4-0 Heracles — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eredivisie, 12 May 2024

📅12/05/2024 · 🕒15:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
51%
1.66
Draw
23%
3.94
Away
26%
3.83
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
41%
2.63
Over 2.5
59%
1.44
Both Teams to Score
Yes
56%
1.46
No
44%
2.53
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
21%
6.32
2-3 Goals
41%
2.11
4-5 Goals
25%
2.53
6+ Goals
13%
5.41
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
2.07
1/2
7%
34.5
1/X
8%
13.8
X/1
19%
4.42
X/2
10%
10.05
X/X
10%
6.66
2/1 EV+ ✗
10%
19.3
2/2
8%
6.29
2/X
6%
14.0
Value flag · 2/1 at 19.3 — our 10% vs market 2.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
51%
Home Win
56%
-4.9pp
24%
Draw
22%
+1.8pp
26%
Away Win
22%
+3.1pp
41%
Under 2.5
34%
+6.2pp
59%
Over 2.5
66%
-6.2pp
56%
BTTS Yes
64%
-8.6pp
44%
BTTS No
36%
+8.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Excelsior EU Bookmakers 60%
Head to Head
AWAY Heracles EU Bookmakers 26%
+27% / +27% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -5% / -10%
3.52/0.73 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.24/1.54
+81% / +150% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -14% / -11%
49% Ball Possession 51%
18 Total Shots 12
7 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 4
327 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 348 · 79%
37.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.5
25.1 Crosses 17.1
1.5 Yellow Cards 1.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Excelsior
3W-0D-3L
AWAY Heracles
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.01 xG 1.11
44% Ball Possession 56%
10 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 6
274 Passes 379
74% Pass Accuracy 80%
16 Box Touches 28
11 Crosses 28
1 Yellow Cards 1
02.09.2023 Heracles Heracles 3-1 HT 0-1 Excelsior Excelsior HOL
28.07.2023 Heracles Heracles 2-1 HT 0-0 Excelsior Excelsior HAZ
22.07.2022 Heracles Heracles 2-1 HT 0-0 Excelsior Excelsior HAZ
21.05.2022 Heracles Heracles 1-3 HT 1-0 Excelsior Excelsior HOL2
18.05.2022 Excelsior Excelsior 3-0 HT 1-0 Heracles Heracles HOL2
16.07.2019 Heracles Heracles 0-2 HT 0-1 Excelsior Excelsior HAZ
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Excelsior
4-0
AWAY Heracles
3.80 xG 0.41
60% Ball Possession 40%
20 Total Shots 6
9 Shots on Target 0
7 Corners 4
422 Passes 251
85% Pass Accuracy 74%
42 Box Touches 10
27 Crosses 13
3 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Excelsior vs Heracles
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Excelsior swept aside Heracles 4-0. Half-time: 1-0.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Excelsior as the likeliest winner at 51%, and the 4-0 landed on that lead. On goals, over 2.5 goals (59%) landed while both teams to score (56%) missed.

On the day, Excelsior had 60% of the ball to Heracles's 40%, shots finished 20-6, expected goals 3.80 to 0.41.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 3 apiece. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for Excelsior and 1.33 for Heracles.

What was the final score of Excelsior vs Heracles?

Excelsior 4-0 Heracles in the Netherlands - Eredivisie on 12/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Excelsior vs Heracles?

Before kick-off our model rated a Excelsior win the most likely single outcome at about 51%, with the full match-result split Excelsior 51%, draw 24%, Heracles 26%. The final score 4-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Excelsior), Over 2.5 — while BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Excelsior) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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