Ulinzi Stars 0-1 Tusker — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Kenya - Premier League, 25 Jan 2025

📅25/01/2025 · 🕒13:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
36%
2.8
Draw
38%
2.7
Away
26%
2.69
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
64%
1.52
Over 2.5
36%
2.38
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.96
No
49%
1.75
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
35%
2-3 Goals
42%
4-5 Goals
17%
6+ Goals
6%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
13%
1/2
9%
1/X
8%
X/1
13%
X/2
9%
X/X
25%
2/1
10%
2/2
7%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
37%
Home Win
32%
+4.2pp
38%
Draw
34%
+4.1pp
26%
Away Win
34%
-8.3pp
64%
Under 2.5
62%
+1.7pp
36%
Over 2.5
38%
-1.7pp
51%
BTTS Yes
47%
+3.8pp
49%
BTTS No
53%
-3.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Ulinzi Stars EU Bookmakers 36%
Head to Head
AWAY Tusker EU Bookmakers 37%
+5% / +5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -8% / -8%
0.69/0.51 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.49/1.75
-30% / +106% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +59% / -52%
50% Ball Possession 50%
11 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
354 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 340 · 77%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards 1.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Ulinzi Stars
0W-2D-1L
AWAY Tusker
0.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
50% Ball Possession 50%
5 Total Shots 7
2 Shots on Target 2
2 Corners 4
1 Yellow Cards 2
23.10.2024 Tusker Tusker 1-1 HT 1-0 Ulinzi Stars Ulinzi Stars KEN
16.02.2022 Ulinzi Stars Ulinzi Stars 0-0 Tusker Tusker KEN2
12.02.2022 Tusker Tusker 2-0 HT 0-0 Ulinzi Stars Ulinzi Stars KEN2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Ulinzi Stars
0-1
AWAY Tusker
53% Ball Possession 47%
12 Total Shots 11
3 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 3
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Ulinzi Stars vs Tusker
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Tusker edged past Ulinzi Stars 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

We called this one close before kick-off — 37% / 38% / 26% — and on the day Tusker made the difference. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (64%) came in.

On the day, Ulinzi Stars had 53% of the ball to Tusker's 47%, shots finished 12-11.

Coming into the game, across their last 3 meetings in our records, Tusker led the recent series with 1 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.33 goals for Ulinzi Stars and 1.00 for Tusker.

What was the final score of Ulinzi Stars vs Tusker?

Ulinzi Stars 0-1 Tusker in the Kenya - Premier League on 25/01/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Ulinzi Stars vs Tusker?

Before kick-off our model rated a draw the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Ulinzi Stars 37%, draw 38%, Tusker 26%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Draw), BTTS Yes went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Draw) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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