Tusker 1-1 Ulinzi Stars — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Kenya - Premier League, 23 Oct 2024

📅23/10/2024 · 🕒13:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
46%
2.12
Draw
31%
2.94
Away
23%
3.34
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
75%
1.48
Over 2.5
25%
2.51
Both Teams to Score
Yes
26%
2.16
No
74%
1.61
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
47%
2-3 Goals
33%
4-5 Goals
14%
6+ Goals
6%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
28%
1/2
4%
1/X
5%
X/1
14%
X/2
4%
X/X
21%
2/1
4%
2/2
15%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
46%
Home Win
43%
+2.8pp
31%
Draw
30%
+0.5pp
23%
Away Win
26%
-3.3pp
75%
Under 2.5
64%
+11.5pp
25%
Over 2.5
36%
-11.5pp
26%
BTTS Yes
42%
-15.7pp
74%
BTTS No
58%
+15.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Tusker EU Bookmakers 47%
Head to Head
AWAY Ulinzi Stars EU Bookmakers 30%
-15% / -15% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -17% / -17%
2.00/2.00 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.00/0.70
+102% / -69% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -100% / +18%
50% Ball Possession 50%
10 Total Shots 7
4 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 4
286 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 297 · 71%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards 1.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Tusker
1W-1D-0L
AWAY Ulinzi Stars
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.00
48% Ball Possession 52%
3 Total Shots 2
1 Shots on Target 1
3 Corners 0
2 Yellow Cards 2
16.02.2022 Ulinzi Stars Ulinzi Stars 0-0 Tusker Tusker KEN2
12.02.2022 Tusker Tusker 2-0 HT 0-0 Ulinzi Stars Ulinzi Stars KEN2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Tusker
1-1
AWAY Ulinzi Stars
53% Ball Possession 47%
11 Total Shots 8
3 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 5
1 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Tusker vs Ulinzi Stars
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Tusker and Ulinzi Stars couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match lean was Tusker at 46%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. On goals, under 2.5 goals (75%) landed while no to both teams scoring (74%) missed.

On the day, Tusker had 53% of the ball to Ulinzi Stars's 47%, shots finished 11-8.

Coming into the game, across their last 2 meetings in our records, Tusker had the better of it with 1 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Tusker and 0.00 for Ulinzi Stars.

What was the final score of Tusker vs Ulinzi Stars?

Tusker 1-1 Ulinzi Stars in the Kenya - Premier League on 23/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Tusker vs Ulinzi Stars?

Before kick-off our model rated a Tusker win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Tusker 46%, draw 31%, Ulinzi Stars 23%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Tusker), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Tusker) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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