Muang Thong United 2-1 Nong Bua Pitchaya — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Thailand - 1st Division, 25 Jan 2025

📅25/01/2025 · 🕒15:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-0 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
60%
1.37
Draw
20%
4.81
Away
20%
5.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
41%
Over 2.5
59%
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.68
No
51%
2.06
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
21%
2-3 Goals
42%
4-5 Goals
25%
6+ Goals
12%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
25%
1/2
6%
1/X
8%
X/1
24%
X/2
6%
X/X
5%
2/1
11%
2/2
8%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
60%
Home Win
68%
-8.1pp
19%
Draw
18%
+1.9pp
20%
Away Win
14%
+6.2pp
49%
BTTS Yes
56%
-6.1pp
51%
BTTS No
44%
+6.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Muang Thong United EU Bookmakers 73%
Head to Head
AWAY Nong Bua Pitchaya EU Bookmakers 17%
+11% / +9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / -2%
1.99/0.72 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.23/1.89
+16% / +21% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +18% / -14%
60% Ball Possession 40%
17 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 4
356 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 245 · 76%
28.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 13.9
19.0 Crosses 9.5
1.6 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Muang Thong United
0W-4D-0L
AWAY Nong Bua Pitchaya
0.75 Avg Goals (FT) 0.75
1.20 xG 0.85
66% Ball Possession 34%
18 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 2
442 Passes 174
84% Pass Accuracy 71%
28 Box Touches 11
20 Crosses 11
2 Yellow Cards 2
31.08.2024 Nong Bua Pitchaya 0-0 HT 0-0 Muang Thong United Muang Thong United TAY
12.11.2022 Nong Bua Pitchaya 2-2 HT 1-0 Muang Thong United Muang Thong United TAY
12.02.2022 Nong Bua Pitchaya 0-0 HT 0-0 Muang Thong United Muang Thong United TAY
05.10.2021 Muang Thong United Muang Thong United 1-1 HT 1-1 Nong Bua Pitchaya TAY
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Muang Thong United
2-1
AWAY Nong Bua Pitchaya
1.17 xG 0.79
66% Ball Possession 34%
16 Total Shots 12
7 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 3
418 Passes 161
86% Pass Accuracy 67%
23 Box Touches 18
24 Crosses 15
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Muang Thong United vs Nong Bua Pitchaya
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Muang Thong United squeezed past Nong Bua Pitchaya 2-1. Half-time: 1-0.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Muang Thong United as the likeliest winner at 60%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (59%) came in.

On the day, Muang Thong United had 66% of the ball to Nong Bua Pitchaya's 34%, shots finished 16-12, expected goals 1.17 to 0.79.

For context: across their last 4 meetings in our records, honours were even at 0 apiece, 4 drawn. Those games averaged 0.75 goals for Muang Thong United and 0.75 for Nong Bua Pitchaya.

What was the final score of Muang Thong United vs Nong Bua Pitchaya?

Muang Thong United 2-1 Nong Bua Pitchaya in the Thailand - 1st Division on 25/01/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Muang Thong United vs Nong Bua Pitchaya?

Before kick-off our model rated a Muang Thong United win the most likely single outcome at about 60%, with the full match-result split Muang Thong United 60%, draw 19%, Nong Bua Pitchaya 20%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Muang Thong United), Over 2.5 — while BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Muang Thong United) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
TAY More Thailand - 1st Division
25 Jan 2025
14:00 Lamphun Warrior vs Bangkok United Analysis →
14:00 Nakhon Ratchasima vs Rayong FC Analysis →