Chelsea 0-1 Liverpool — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - League Cup, 25 Feb 2024

Chelsea
0-1 HT 0-0
Liverpool
📅25/02/2024 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 ✗ 2nd Score 2-1 ✗
England - League Cup – 2023/2024

Chelsea vs Liverpool Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
34%
2.57
Draw
28%
3.45
Away
38%
2.32
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
2.21
Over 2.5
52%
1.6
Both Teams to Score
Yes
56%
1.5
No
44%
2.4
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
22%
4.59
2-3 Goals
41%
1.9
4-5 Goals
23%
2.88
6+ Goals
14%
8.22
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
13%
3.91
1/2
5%
24.0
1/X
8%
12.4
X/1
12%
6.33
X/2
13%
5.46
X/X
10%
5.28
2/1 EV+ ✗
10%
27.0
2/2
19%
3.18
2/X
10%
12.25
Value flag · 2/1 at 27.0 — our 10% vs market 1.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
34%
Home Win
35%
-0.8pp
28%
Draw
26%
+2.2pp
38%
Away Win
39%
-1.5pp
48%
Under 2.5
41%
+6.1pp
52%
Over 2.5
59%
-6.1pp
56%
BTTS Yes
62%
-6.8pp
44%
BTTS No
38%
+6.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Chelsea v Liverpool — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Chelsea EU Bookmakers 39%
Head to Head
AWAY Liverpool EU Bookmakers 43%
+7% / +7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +7% / +7%
0.94/1.00 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.80/1.83
-16% / +150% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -52% / +150%
47% Ball Possession 53%
11 Total Shots 15
4 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 5
347 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 415 · 80%
16.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 42.4
8.9 Crosses 30.6
1.2 Yellow Cards 0.9

Chelsea vs Liverpool Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Chelsea
0W-5D-1L
AWAY Liverpool
0.33 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
1.43 xG 1.57
52% Ball Possession 48%
10 Total Shots 17
3 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 6
472 Passes 435
83% Pass Accuracy 82%
24 Box Touches 34
16 Crosses 22
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
31.01.2024 Liverpool Liverpool 4-1 HT 2-0 Chelsea Chelsea İNP
13.08.2023 Chelsea Chelsea 1-1 HT 1-1 Liverpool Liverpool İNP
04.04.2023 Chelsea Chelsea 0-0 HT 0-0 Liverpool Liverpool İNP
21.01.2023 Liverpool Liverpool 0-0 HT 0-0 Chelsea Chelsea İNP
14.05.2022 Chelsea Chelsea 0-0 HT 0-0 Liverpool Liverpool FAK
27.02.2022 Chelsea Chelsea 0-0 HT 0-0 Liverpool Liverpool İNLK

Chelsea 0-1 Liverpool — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Chelsea
0-1
AWAY Liverpool
2.30 xG 1.77
46% Ball Possession 54%
19 Total Shots 23
9 Shots on Target 11
6 Corners 5
473 Passes 580
80% Pass Accuracy 84%
38 Box Touches 51
25 Crosses 24
2 Yellow Cards 5
POST-MATCH Chelsea vs Liverpool
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Liverpool nicked a narrow win over Chelsea 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match split (34% / 28% / 38%) promised a tight game; Liverpool found the edge the numbers couldn't. The goals read — both teams to score (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Chelsea had 46% of the ball to Liverpool's 54%, shots finished 19-23, expected goals 2.30 to 1.77 — on chances, Chelsea could feel hard done by.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Liverpool led the recent series with 1 wins, 5 drawn. Those games averaged 0.33 goals for Chelsea and 0.83 for Liverpool.

What was the final score of Chelsea vs Liverpool?

Chelsea 0-1 Liverpool in the England - League Cup on 25/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Chelsea vs Liverpool?

Before kick-off our model rated an Liverpool win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Chelsea 34%, draw 28%, Liverpool 38%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Liverpool) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Liverpool) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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