Liverpool 4-1 Chelsea — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Premier League, 31 Jan 2024

Liverpool
4-1 HT 2-0
Chelsea
📅31/01/2024 · 🕒23:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 ✗ 2nd Score 2-1 ✗
England - Premier League – 2023/2024

Liverpool vs Chelsea Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
51%
1.64
Draw
23%
3.8
Away
26%
4.04
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
40%
2.43
Over 2.5
60%
1.51
Both Teams to Score
Yes
57%
1.55
No
43%
2.29
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
18%
5.35
2-3 Goals
38%
1.99
4-5 Goals
29%
2.66
6+ Goals
15%
6.53
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
29%
2.05
1/2
7%
34.0
1/X EV+ ✗
11%
14.1
X/1
16%
4.23
X/2
10%
9.97
X/X
6%
6.32
2/1
6%
19.8
2/2
9%
6.65
2/X
6%
14.5
Value flag · 1/X at 14.1 — our 11% vs market 4.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
51%
Home Win
56%
-5.3pp
23%
Draw
23%
+0.6pp
26%
Away Win
21%
+4.7pp
40%
Under 2.5
38%
+2.2pp
60%
Over 2.5
62%
-2.2pp
57%
BTTS Yes
60%
-2.9pp
43%
BTTS No
40%
+2.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Liverpool v Chelsea — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Liverpool EU Bookmakers 61%
Head to Head
AWAY Chelsea EU Bookmakers 25%
+6% / +3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / +2%
2.03/1.05 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.98/1.24
+22% / +21% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -26% / +31%
53% Ball Possession 47%
15 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
376 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 334 · 77%
33.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.5
22.2 Crosses 14.7
1.5 Yellow Cards 1.5

Liverpool vs Chelsea Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Liverpool
0W-6D-0L
AWAY Chelsea
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
1.31 xG 1.54
47% Ball Possession 53%
14 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
416 Passes 471
80% Pass Accuracy 82%
29 Box Touches 28
20 Crosses 19
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
13.08.2023 Chelsea Chelsea 1-1 HT 1-1 Liverpool Liverpool İNP
04.04.2023 Chelsea Chelsea 0-0 HT 0-0 Liverpool Liverpool İNP
21.01.2023 Liverpool Liverpool 0-0 HT 0-0 Chelsea Chelsea İNP
14.05.2022 Chelsea Chelsea 0-0 HT 0-0 Liverpool Liverpool FAK
27.02.2022 Chelsea Chelsea 0-0 HT 0-0 Liverpool Liverpool İNLK
02.01.2022 Chelsea Chelsea 2-2 HT 2-2 Liverpool Liverpool İNP

Liverpool 4-1 Chelsea — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Liverpool
4-1
AWAY Chelsea
2.90 xG 0.58
51% Ball Possession 49%
28 Total Shots 4
13 Shots on Target 3
8 Corners 1
472 Passes 483
85% Pass Accuracy 86%
49 Box Touches 9
26 Crosses 5
2 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Liverpool vs Chelsea
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Liverpool cruised past Chelsea 4-1. Half-time: 2-0. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we said in the preview, our model had Liverpool as the likeliest winner at 51%, and the 4-1 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (60%), both teams to score (57%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Liverpool had 51% of the ball to Chelsea's 49%, shots finished 28-4, expected goals 2.90 to 0.58.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 0 apiece, 6 drawn. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Liverpool and 0.50 for Chelsea.

What was the final score of Liverpool vs Chelsea?

Liverpool 4-1 Chelsea in the England - Premier League on 31/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Liverpool vs Chelsea?

Before kick-off our model rated a Liverpool win the most likely single outcome at about 51%, with the full match-result split Liverpool 51%, draw 23%, Chelsea 26%. The final score 4-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Liverpool), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Liverpool) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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İNP More England - Premier League
31 Jan 2024
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