Tottenham 3-2 Brentford — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Premier League, 31 Jan 2024

📅31/01/2024 · 🕒22:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
46%
1.61
Draw
26%
3.94
Away
28%
4.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
42%
2.51
Over 2.5
58%
1.48
Both Teams to Score
Yes
56%
1.53
No
44%
2.33
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
20%
5.7
2-3 Goals
44%
2.02
4-5 Goals
25%
2.6
6+ Goals
11%
6.04
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
28%
1.98
1/2 EV+ ✗
6%
34.0
1/X
8%
14.45
X/1
13%
4.19
X/2
9%
10.5
X/X
13%
6.61
2/1
6%
19.4
2/2
12%
6.9
2/X
5%
14.75
Value flag · 1/2 at 34.0 — our 6% vs market 1.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
46%
Home Win
58%
-11.4pp
26%
Draw
22%
+4.4pp
28%
Away Win
21%
+7.0pp
42%
Under 2.5
36%
+6.0pp
58%
Over 2.5
64%
-6.0pp
56%
BTTS Yes
61%
-4.7pp
44%
BTTS No
39%
+4.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Tottenham EU Bookmakers 62%
Head to Head
AWAY Brentford EU Bookmakers 24%
+1% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / +7%
1.85/1.05 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.19/1.42
+16% / -10% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +20% / -14%
56% Ball Possession 44%
15 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 5
419 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 303 · 78%
28.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.7
18.6 Crosses 15.6
1.9 Yellow Cards 1.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Tottenham
2W-3D-1L
AWAY Brentford
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.38 xG 1.30
58% Ball Possession 42%
14 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 5
460 Passes 298
84% Pass Accuracy 76%
26 Box Touches 25
23 Crosses 17
2 Yellow Cards 2
13.08.2023 Brentford Brentford 2-2 HT 2-2 Tottenham Tottenham İNP
20.05.2023 Tottenham Tottenham 1-3 HT 1-0 Brentford Brentford İNP
26.12.2022 Brentford Brentford 2-2 HT 1-0 Tottenham Tottenham İNP
23.04.2022 Brentford Brentford 0-0 HT 0-0 Tottenham Tottenham İNP
02.12.2021 Tottenham Tottenham 2-0 HT 1-0 Brentford Brentford İNP
05.01.2021 Tottenham Tottenham 2-0 HT 1-0 Brentford Brentford İNLK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Tottenham
3-2
AWAY Brentford
3.01 xG 1.59
68% Ball Possession 32%
19 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 3
531 Passes 183
86% Pass Accuracy 66%
45 Box Touches 34
18 Crosses 22
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Tottenham vs Brentford
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Tottenham nicked a narrow win over Brentford 3-2. It was 0-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Tottenham as the likeliest winner at 46%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (58%), both teams to score (56%) came in.

On the day, Tottenham had 68% of the ball to Brentford's 32%, shots finished 19-9, expected goals 3.01 to 1.59 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Tottenham's control.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Tottenham had the better of it with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Tottenham and 1.17 for Brentford.

What was the final score of Tottenham vs Brentford?

Tottenham 3-2 Brentford in the England - Premier League on 31/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Tottenham vs Brentford?

Before kick-off our model rated a Tottenham win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Tottenham 46%, draw 26%, Brentford 28%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Tottenham), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Tottenham) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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İNP More England - Premier League
31 Jan 2024
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