Manchester City 3-1 Burnley — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Premier League, 31 Jan 2024

Manchester City
3-1 HT 2-0
Burnley
📅31/01/2024 · 🕒22:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-0 ✗ 2nd Score 3-1 ✓
England - Premier League – 2025/2026

Manchester City vs Burnley Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
63%
1.16
Draw
20%
7.13
Away
17%
10.87
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
41%
2.98
Over 2.5
59%
1.36
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.99
No
48%
1.73
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
20%
7.57
2-3 Goals
38%
2.25
4-5 Goals
28%
2.4
6+ Goals
14%
4.42
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
36%
1.24
1/2
5%
34.0
1/X
6%
34.0
X/1
19%
3.52
X/2
6%
34.0
X/X
9%
12.6
2/1 EV+ ✗
9%
22.6
2/2
5%
27.0
2/X
5%
32.5
Value flag · 2/1 at 22.6 — our 9% vs market 1.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
63%
Home Win
82%
-18.5pp
20%
Draw
11%
+8.7pp
17%
Away Win
7%
+9.9pp
41%
Under 2.5
30%
+11.2pp
59%
Over 2.5
70%
-11.2pp
52%
BTTS Yes
46%
+5.4pp
48%
BTTS No
54%
-5.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Manchester City v Burnley — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Manchester City EU Bookmakers 87%
Head to Head
AWAY Burnley EU Bookmakers 9%
-4% / -1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +8% / +6%
2.28/0.72 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.76/2.08
+36% / -8% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -3% / +16%
65% Ball Possession 35%
19 Total Shots 9
7 Shots on Target 4
8 Corners 4
526 · 85% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 252 · 72%
40.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 14.3
21.8 Crosses 12.7
1.2 Yellow Cards 2.2

Manchester City vs Burnley Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Manchester City
6W-0D-0L
AWAY Burnley
3.33 Avg Goals (FT) 0.00
2.28 xG 0.40
69% Ball Possession 31%
17 Total Shots 6
7 Shots on Target 1
5 Corners 3
649 Passes 243
90% Pass Accuracy 75%
34 Box Touches 11
15 Crosses 10
0 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
11.08.2023 Burnley Burnley 0-3 HT 0-2 Manchester City Manchester City İNP
18.03.2023 Manchester City Manchester City 6-0 HT 2-0 Burnley Burnley FAK
02.04.2022 Burnley Burnley 0-2 HT 0-2 Manchester City Manchester City İNP
16.10.2021 Manchester City Manchester City 2-0 HT 1-0 Burnley Burnley İNP
03.02.2021 Burnley Burnley 0-2 HT 0-2 Manchester City Manchester City İNP
28.11.2020 Manchester City Manchester City 5-0 HT 3-0 Burnley Burnley İNP

Manchester City 3-1 Burnley — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Manchester City
3-1
AWAY Burnley
1.76 xG 1.44
74% Ball Possession 26%
14 Total Shots 8
4 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 3
717 Passes 199
90% Pass Accuracy 74%
30 Box Touches 15
11 Crosses 8
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Manchester City vs Burnley
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Manchester City beat Burnley 3-1. Half-time: 2-0.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Manchester City as the likeliest winner at 63%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (59%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Manchester City had 74% of the ball to Burnley's 26%, shots finished 14-8, expected goals 1.76 to 1.44.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Manchester City had the better of it with 6 wins. Those games averaged 3.33 goals for Manchester City and 0.00 for Burnley.

What was the final score of Manchester City vs Burnley?

Manchester City 3-1 Burnley in the England - Premier League on 31/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Manchester City vs Burnley?

Before kick-off our model rated a Manchester City win the most likely single outcome at about 63%, with the full match-result split Manchester City 63%, draw 20%, Burnley 17%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Manchester City), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Manchester City) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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İNP More England - Premier League
31 Jan 2024
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