Saarbrücken 1-1 Arminia Bielefeld — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - 3rd Division, 25 Feb 2024

📅25/02/2024 · 🕒18:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
1.72
Draw
33%
3.64
Away
24%
4.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.95
Over 2.5
45%
1.78
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.76
No
51%
1.95
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
27%
3.57
2-3 Goals
42%
1.8
4-5 Goals
22%
3.36
6+ Goals
9%
12.3
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.57 — our 27% vs market 22.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
2.2
1/2
8%
34.5
1/X
6%
14.6
X/1
20%
4.0
X/2
9%
9.43
X/X
17%
5.19
2/1
6%
23.15
2/2
7%
7.23
2/X
10%
15.35
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
43%
Home Win
54%
-11.1pp
33%
Draw
24%
+8.8pp
24%
Away Win
21%
+2.4pp
55%
Under 2.5
48%
+7.1pp
45%
Over 2.5
52%
-7.1pp
49%
BTTS Yes
53%
-3.4pp
51%
BTTS No
47%
+3.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Saarbrücken EU Bookmakers 58%
Head to Head
AWAY Arminia Bielefeld EU Bookmakers 24%
-1% / -11% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / -1%
1.67/1.05 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.01/1.89
-7% / -5% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -6% / -13%
51% Ball Possession 49%
14 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
331 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 264 · 69%
24.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
24.0 Crosses
2.0 Yellow Cards 3.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Saarbrücken
1W-0D-5L
AWAY Arminia Bielefeld
2.17 Avg Goals (FT) 3.00
41% Ball Possession 59%
12 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 6
8 Corners 4
2 Yellow Cards 2
29.09.2023 Arminia Bielefeld Arminia Bielefeld 2-6 HT 1-1 Saarbrücken Saarbrücken AL3
20.02.2013 Saarbrücken Saarbrücken 2-4 HT 1-2 Arminia Bielefeld Arminia Bielefeld AL3
03.08.2012 Arminia Bielefeld Arminia Bielefeld 3-2 HT 2-1 Saarbrücken Saarbrücken AL3
10.03.2012 Saarbrücken Saarbrücken 2-4 HT 1-1 Arminia Bielefeld Arminia Bielefeld AL3
08.02.2002 Saarbrücken Saarbrücken 0-2 HT 0-0 Arminia Bielefeld Arminia Bielefeld AL2
09.09.2001 Arminia Bielefeld Arminia Bielefeld 3-1 HT 2-0 Saarbrücken Saarbrücken AL2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Saarbrücken
1-1
AWAY Arminia Bielefeld
48% Ball Possession 52%
17 Total Shots 19
7 Shots on Target 11
5 Corners 7
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Saarbrücken vs Arminia Bielefeld
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Saarbrücken and Arminia Bielefeld shared the points in a 1-1 draw. Half-time: 0-0.

Our pre-match lean was Saarbrücken at 43%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (55%) came in.

On the day, Saarbrücken had 48% of the ball to Arminia Bielefeld's 52%, shots finished 17-19.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Arminia Bielefeld led the recent series with 5 wins. Those games averaged 2.17 goals for Saarbrücken and 3.00 for Arminia Bielefeld.

What was the final score of Saarbrücken vs Arminia Bielefeld?

Saarbrücken 1-1 Arminia Bielefeld in the Germany - 3rd Division on 25/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Saarbrücken vs Arminia Bielefeld?

Before kick-off our model rated a Saarbrücken win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Saarbrücken 43%, draw 33%, Arminia Bielefeld 24%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Saarbrücken), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Saarbrücken) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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