Swarovski Tirol 0-2 Sturm Graz — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Austria - Bundesliga, 25 Feb 2024

Swarovski Tirol
0-2 HT 0-2
Sturm Graz
📅25/02/2024 · 🕒16:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-1 ✗
Austria - Bundesliga – 2023/2024

Swarovski Tirol vs Sturm Graz Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
33%
4.48
Draw
26%
3.64
Away
41%
1.68
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
2.0
Over 2.5
48%
1.74
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.75
No
51%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
27%
3.8
2-3 Goals
42%
1.83
4-5 Goals
21%
3.22
6+ Goals
10%
11.05
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.8 — our 27% vs market 21.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
7.82
1/2
12%
22.7
1/X
5%
15.4
X/1
12%
10.3
X/2
9%
3.99
X/X
13%
5.34
2/1
7%
34.5
2/2
20%
2.08
2/X
8%
14.6
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
33%
Home Win
20%
+13.4pp
26%
Draw
25%
+1.0pp
41%
Away Win
56%
-14.4pp
52%
Under 2.5
46%
+5.6pp
48%
Over 2.5
54%
-5.6pp
49%
BTTS Yes
53%
-3.9pp
51%
BTTS No
47%
+3.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Swarovski Tirol v Sturm Graz — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Swarovski Tirol EU Bookmakers 22%
Head to Head
AWAY Sturm Graz EU Bookmakers 60%
+13% / +16% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / +14%
1.56/2.12 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.60/1.04
+81% / +8% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +7% / +10%
45% Ball Possession 55%
10 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
280 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 340 · 78%
17.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 24.6
14.5 Crosses 19.1
1.6 Yellow Cards 2.0

Swarovski Tirol vs Sturm Graz Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Swarovski Tirol
0W-1D-5L
AWAY Sturm Graz
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 2.50
0.68 xG 2.35
51% Ball Possession 49%
8 Total Shots 18
3 Shots on Target 7
4 Corners 6
266 Passes 256
67% Pass Accuracy 70%
12 Box Touches 32
16 Crosses 20
3 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
01.10.2023 Sturm Graz Sturm Graz 1-0 HT 1-0 Swarovski Tirol Swarovski Tirol AVU
19.03.2023 Swarovski Tirol Swarovski Tirol 0-2 HT 0-0 Sturm Graz Sturm Graz AVU
09.10.2022 Sturm Graz Sturm Graz 2-1 HT 2-1 Swarovski Tirol Swarovski Tirol AVU
12.02.2022 Swarovski Tirol Swarovski Tirol 2-2 HT 1-1 Sturm Graz Sturm Graz AVU
19.09.2021 Sturm Graz Sturm Graz 5-0 HT 2-0 Swarovski Tirol Swarovski Tirol AVU
12.05.2021 Swarovski Tirol Swarovski Tirol 2-3 HT 1-2 Sturm Graz Sturm Graz AVU

Swarovski Tirol 0-2 Sturm Graz — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Swarovski Tirol
0-2
AWAY Sturm Graz
1.37 xG 2.83
41% Ball Possession 59%
15 Total Shots 16
2 Shots on Target 10
4 Corners 6
205 Passes 349
65% Pass Accuracy 76%
28 Box Touches 26
16 Crosses 15
POST-MATCH Swarovski Tirol vs Sturm Graz
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Sturm Graz got the better of Swarovski Tirol 2-0 away from home.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Sturm Graz as the likeliest winner at 41%, and the 2-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Swarovski Tirol had 41% of the ball to Sturm Graz's 59%, shots finished 15-16, expected goals 1.37 to 2.83.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Sturm Graz led the recent series with 5 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Swarovski Tirol and 2.50 for Sturm Graz.

What was the final score of Swarovski Tirol vs Sturm Graz?

Swarovski Tirol 0-2 Sturm Graz in the Austria - Bundesliga on 25/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Swarovski Tirol vs Sturm Graz?

Before kick-off our model rated an Sturm Graz win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Swarovski Tirol 33%, draw 26%, Sturm Graz 41%. The final score 0-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Sturm Graz), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Sturm Graz) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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