Aurora 1-0 Wilstermann — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Bolivia - LFPB Küme Düşme, 25 Feb 2024

📅25/02/2024 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 0-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
19%
7.18
Draw
24%
4.62
Away
57%
1.33
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
62%
2.15
Over 2.5
38%
1.64
Both Teams to Score
Yes
30%
1.99
No
70%
1.73
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
28%
2-3 Goals
46%
4-5 Goals
19%
6+ Goals
7%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
5%
1/2
3%
1/X
7%
X/1
10%
X/2
22%
X/X
10%
2/1
5%
2/2
31%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
20%
Home Win
11%
+8.6pp
24%
Draw
18%
+5.4pp
57%
Away Win
71%
-13.9pp
62%
Under 2.5
43%
+19.0pp
38%
Over 2.5
57%
-19.0pp
30%
BTTS Yes
46%
-16.3pp
70%
BTTS No
54%
+16.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Aurora EU Bookmakers 14%
Head to Head
AWAY Wilstermann EU Bookmakers 75%
-23% / -23% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +12% / +12%
1.11/2.26 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.71/0.29
-23% / -5% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -22% / +150%
39% Ball Possession 61%
7 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 5
247 · 70% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 420 · 83%
20.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
8.0 Crosses
1.6 Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Aurora
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Wilstermann
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
0.99 xG 0.84
47% Ball Possession 53%
11 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 4
160 Passes 251
69% Pass Accuracy 76%
16 Box Touches 16
21 Crosses 20
3 Yellow Cards 4
17.07.2023 Aurora Aurora 1-0 HT 0-0 Wilstermann Wilstermann BOLİ
13.02.2023 Wilstermann Wilstermann 0-2 HT 0-2 Aurora Aurora BOLİ
09.05.2022 Wilstermann Wilstermann 0-0 HT 0-0 Aurora Aurora BOLİ
13.03.2022 Aurora Aurora 1-0 HT 1-0 Wilstermann Wilstermann BOLİ
02.12.2021 Aurora Aurora 1-1 HT 0-0 Wilstermann Wilstermann BOLİ
06.08.2021 Wilstermann Wilstermann 2-1 HT 1-0 Aurora Aurora BOLİ
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Aurora
1-0
AWAY Wilstermann
0.68 xG 0.54
53% Ball Possession 47%
13 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
1 Corners 5
295 Passes 235
81% Pass Accuracy 75%
15 Box Touches 10
6 Crosses 13
5 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Aurora vs Wilstermann
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Aurora nicked a narrow win over Wilstermann 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

This one beat our numbers. Wilstermann carried 57% before kick-off and it didn't land — a reminder that even strong leads lose regularly. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (62%), no to both teams scoring (70%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Aurora had 53% of the ball to Wilstermann's 47%, shots finished 13-10, expected goals 0.68 to 0.54.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Aurora had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Aurora and 0.50 for Wilstermann.

What was the final score of Aurora vs Wilstermann?

Aurora 1-0 Wilstermann in the Bolivia - LFPB Küme Düşme on 25/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Aurora vs Wilstermann?

Before kick-off our model rated an Wilstermann win the most likely single outcome at about 57%, with the full match-result split Aurora 20%, draw 24%, Wilstermann 57%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Wilstermann) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Wilstermann) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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