Kashiwa Reysol 1-1 Kyoto Sanga — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Japan - J1 League, 25 Feb 2024

📅25/02/2024 · 🕒08:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
48%
2.09
Draw
26%
3.11
Away
26%
3.25
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
1.64
Over 2.5
51%
2.15
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.9
No
48%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
29%
2.61
2-3 Goals
36%
1.77
4-5 Goals
26%
4.52
6+ Goals
9%
24.0
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
3.02
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
9%
13.7
X/1
15%
4.49
X/2
9%
6.76
X/X
11%
3.97
2/1 EV+ ✗
12%
29.5
2/2
11%
5.37
2/X
6%
14.15
Value flag · 2/1 at 29.5 — our 12% vs market 1.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
47%
Home Win
44%
+3.5pp
26%
Draw
29%
-2.3pp
26%
Away Win
27%
-1.2pp
49%
Under 2.5
57%
-8.1pp
51%
Over 2.5
43%
+8.1pp
52%
BTTS Yes
49%
+3.7pp
48%
BTTS No
51%
-3.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Kashiwa Reysol EU Bookmakers 48%
Head to Head
AWAY Kyoto Sanga EU Bookmakers 31%
-7% / -11% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +7% / +11%
1.28/1.16 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.95/1.46
-6% / -26% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +7% / +18%
49% Ball Possession 51%
12 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
280 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 298 · 74%
21.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.8
19.2 Crosses 15.0
1.3 Yellow Cards 1.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Kashiwa Reysol
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Kyoto Sanga
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.13 xG 0.80
51% Ball Possession 49%
11 Total Shots 11
2 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
304 Passes 247
72% Pass Accuracy 68%
20 Box Touches 17
16 Crosses 15
2 Yellow Cards 1
06.08.2023 Kyoto Sanga Kyoto Sanga 0-1 HT 0-1 Kashiwa Reysol Kashiwa Reysol JAP
29.04.2023 Kashiwa Reysol Kashiwa Reysol 1-1 HT 0-1 Kyoto Sanga Kyoto Sanga JAP
06.08.2022 Kyoto Sanga Kyoto Sanga 1-2 HT 1-1 Kashiwa Reysol Kashiwa Reysol JAP
18.05.2022 Kashiwa Reysol Kashiwa Reysol 0-1 HT 0-0 Kyoto Sanga Kyoto Sanga JLK
17.04.2022 Kashiwa Reysol Kashiwa Reysol 0-2 HT 0-1 Kyoto Sanga Kyoto Sanga JAP
23.02.2022 Kyoto Sanga Kyoto Sanga 1-1 HT 1-0 Kashiwa Reysol Kashiwa Reysol JLK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Kashiwa Reysol
1-1
AWAY Kyoto Sanga
1.49 xG 0.91
52% Ball Possession 48%
11 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
188 Passes 157
64% Pass Accuracy 58%
20 Box Touches 18
16 Crosses 23
3 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Kashiwa Reysol vs Kyoto Sanga
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Kashiwa Reysol and Kyoto Sanga couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. Half-time: 0-0.

Our pre-match lean was Kashiwa Reysol at 47%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, Kashiwa Reysol had 52% of the ball to Kyoto Sanga's 48%, shots finished 11-12, expected goals 1.49 to 0.91.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Kashiwa Reysol and 1.00 for Kyoto Sanga.

What was the final score of Kashiwa Reysol vs Kyoto Sanga?

Kashiwa Reysol 1-1 Kyoto Sanga in the Japan - J1 League on 25/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Kashiwa Reysol vs Kyoto Sanga?

Before kick-off our model rated a Kashiwa Reysol win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split Kashiwa Reysol 47%, draw 26%, Kyoto Sanga 26%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Kashiwa Reysol), Over 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Kashiwa Reysol) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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