Al Shabab Riyadh 2-3 Al Nassr — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Saudi Arabia Prosefyonel League, 25 Feb 2024

Al Shabab Riyadh
2-3 HT 1-1
Al Nassr
📅25/02/2024 · 🕒20:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 ✗ 2nd Score 0-0 ✗
Saudi Arabia Prosefyonel League – 2023/2024

Al Shabab Riyadh vs Al Nassr Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
28%
3.75
Draw
26%
3.8
Away
46%
1.71
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
2.33
Over 2.5
51%
1.54
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
1.55
No
55%
2.29
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
28%
4.92
2-3 Goals
38%
1.94
4-5 Goals
24%
2.78
6+ Goals
10%
7.42
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.92 — our 28% vs market 15.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
13%
1/2
6%
1/X
4%
X/1
10%
X/2
15%
X/X
13%
2/1
4%
2/2
26%
2/X
9%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Away Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
28%
Home Win
23%
+4.6pp
26%
Draw
23%
+3.2pp
46%
Away Win
54%
-7.7pp
49%
Under 2.5
39%
+10.3pp
51%
Over 2.5
61%
-10.3pp
45%
BTTS Yes
60%
-15.1pp
55%
BTTS No
40%
+15.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Al Shabab Riyadh v Al Nassr — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Al Shabab Riyadh EU Bookmakers 27%
Head to Head
AWAY Al Nassr EU Bookmakers 58%
+21% / +21% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / +13%
0.81/1.36 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.45/1.19
+3% / +81% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +34% / +3%
44% Ball Possession 56%
10 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
267 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 355 · 78%
16.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 30.6
10.6 Crosses 20.8
2.7 Yellow Cards 2.2

Al Shabab Riyadh vs Al Nassr Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Al Shabab Riyadh
0W-2D-4L
AWAY Al Nassr
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.67
1.16 xG 2.08
49% Ball Possession 51%
10 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 6
6 Corners 4
367 Passes 396
86% Pass Accuracy 88%
19 Box Touches 19
16 Crosses 14
4 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
11.12.2023 Al Shabab Riyadh Al Shabab Riyadh 2-5 HT 1-3 Al Nassr Al Nassr SAKK
29.08.2023 Al Nassr Al Nassr 4-0 HT 3-0 Al Shabab Riyadh Al Shabab Riyadh SUUD
28.07.2023 Al Nassr Al Nassr 0-0 HT 0-0 Al Shabab Riyadh Al Shabab Riyadh AŞMPL
23.05.2023 Al Nassr Al Nassr 3-2 HT 1-2 Al Shabab Riyadh Al Shabab Riyadh SUUD
14.01.2023 Al Shabab Riyadh Al Shabab Riyadh 0-0 HT 0-0 Al Nassr Al Nassr SUUD
06.05.2022 Al Nassr Al Nassr 4-2 HT 3-0 Al Shabab Riyadh Al Shabab Riyadh SUUD

Al Shabab Riyadh 2-3 Al Nassr — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Al Shabab Riyadh
2-3
AWAY Al Nassr
2.62 xG 1.34
53% Ball Possession 47%
15 Total Shots 12
7 Shots on Target 6
11 Corners 3
387 Passes 340
85% Pass Accuracy 84%
31 Box Touches 6
21 Crosses 11
4 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Al Shabab Riyadh vs Al Nassr
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Al Nassr edged past Al Shabab Riyadh 3-2 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Al Nassr as the likeliest winner at 46%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead. The goals read — no to both teams scoring (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Al Shabab Riyadh had 53% of the ball to Al Nassr's 47%, shots finished 15-12, expected goals 2.62 to 1.34 — on chances, Al Shabab Riyadh could feel hard done by.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Al Nassr led the recent series with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Al Shabab Riyadh and 2.67 for Al Nassr.

What was the final score of Al Shabab Riyadh vs Al Nassr?

Al Shabab Riyadh 2-3 Al Nassr in the Saudi Arabia Prosefyonel League on 25/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Al Shabab Riyadh vs Al Nassr?

Before kick-off our model rated an Al Nassr win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Al Shabab Riyadh 28%, draw 26%, Al Nassr 46%. The final score 2-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Al Nassr), Over 2.5 — while BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Al Nassr) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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