Chelsea 4-0 Southampton — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Premier League, 25 Feb 2025

📅25/02/2025 · 🕒23:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-0 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
66%
1.18
Draw
19%
7.13
Away
15%
8.9
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
38%
3.46
Over 2.5
62%
1.28
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.76
No
48%
1.95
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
19%
7.99
2-3 Goals
38%
2.32
4-5 Goals
28%
2.32
6+ Goals
15%
3.87
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
43%
1.29
1/2
4%
34.5
1/X
5%
25.0
X/1
14%
4.03
X/2
5%
27.5
X/X
8%
11.8
2/1 EV+ ✗
9%
19.3
2/2
6%
21.7
2/X
6%
29.5
Value flag · 2/1 at 19.3 — our 9% vs market 2.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
66%
Home Win
80%
-14.0pp
19%
Draw
11%
+7.4pp
15%
Away Win
8%
+6.6pp
38%
Under 2.5
25%
+12.2pp
62%
Over 2.5
75%
-12.2pp
52%
BTTS Yes
53%
-0.8pp
48%
BTTS No
47%
+0.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Chelsea EU Bookmakers 85%
Head to Head
AWAY Southampton EU Bookmakers 11%
-11% / -18% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / -7%
2.10/1.00 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.93/2.04
-19% / -17% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -12% / -2%
61% Ball Possession 39%
18 Total Shots 8
7 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 4
505 · 85% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 279 · 75%
36.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.9
21.8 Crosses 14.4
1.8 Yellow Cards 2.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Chelsea
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Southampton
2.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
2.85 xG 1.19
63% Ball Possession 37%
20 Total Shots 8
10 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
474 Passes 236
85% Pass Accuracy 73%
35 Box Touches 18
16 Crosses 14
1 Yellow Cards 3
04.12.2024 Southampton Southampton 1-5 HT 1-3 Chelsea Chelsea İNP
18.02.2023 Chelsea Chelsea 0-1 HT 0-1 Southampton Southampton İNP
30.08.2022 Southampton Southampton 2-1 HT 2-1 Chelsea Chelsea İNP
09.04.2022 Southampton Southampton 0-6 HT 0-4 Chelsea Chelsea İNP
26.10.2021 Chelsea Chelsea 1-1 HT 1-0 Southampton Southampton İNLK
02.10.2021 Chelsea Chelsea 3-1 HT 1-0 Southampton Southampton İNP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Chelsea
4-0
AWAY Southampton
2.56 xG 0.72
60% Ball Possession 40%
19 Total Shots 7
10 Shots on Target 2
4 Corners 2
564 Passes 350
91% Pass Accuracy 84%
39 Box Touches 12
10 Crosses 10
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Chelsea vs Southampton
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Chelsea ran out comfortable winners over Southampton 4-0. Half-time: 3-0.

As we said in the preview, our model had Chelsea as the likeliest winner at 66%, and the 4-0 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (62%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Chelsea had 60% of the ball to Southampton's 40%, shots finished 19-7, expected goals 2.56 to 0.72.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Chelsea had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.67 goals for Chelsea and 1.00 for Southampton.

What was the final score of Chelsea vs Southampton?

Chelsea 4-0 Southampton in the England - Premier League on 25/02/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Chelsea vs Southampton?

Before kick-off our model rated a Chelsea win the most likely single outcome at about 66%, with the full match-result split Chelsea 66%, draw 19%, Southampton 15%. The final score 4-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Chelsea), Over 2.5 — while BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Chelsea) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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