Crystal Palace 4-1 Aston Villa — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Premier League, 25 Feb 2025

📅25/02/2025 · 🕒22:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
46%
2.12
Draw
26%
3.28
Away
28%
2.94
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
2.03
Over 2.5
45%
1.71
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.6
No
53%
2.19
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
30%
3.74
2-3 Goals
39%
1.8
4-5 Goals
22%
3.07
6+ Goals
9%
10.15
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.74 — our 30% vs market 20.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
3.03
1/2
6%
30.0
1/X
9%
12.05
X/1
18%
5.27
X/2
10%
6.87
X/X
10%
4.88
2/1
6%
24.3
2/2
13%
4.6
2/X
6%
12.55
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
46%
Home Win
43%
+3.0pp
26%
Draw
27%
-1.2pp
28%
Away Win
30%
-1.8pp
55%
Under 2.5
45%
+9.1pp
45%
Over 2.5
55%
-9.1pp
47%
BTTS Yes
58%
-11.3pp
53%
BTTS No
42%
+11.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Crystal Palace EU Bookmakers 47%
Head to Head
AWAY Aston Villa EU Bookmakers 34%
-2% / -10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / +3%
1.47/0.93 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.29/1.61
-4% / +5% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -8% / +10%
50% Ball Possession 50%
14 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
337 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 338 · 80%
27.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 23.3
18.9 Crosses 16.9
1.7 Yellow Cards 2.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Crystal Palace
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Aston Villa
2.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.40 xG 1.76
41% Ball Possession 59%
11 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 4
302 Passes 451
80% Pass Accuracy 86%
21 Box Touches 33
13 Crosses 16
3 Yellow Cards 3
23.11.2024 Aston Villa Aston Villa 2-2 HT 1-2 Crystal Palace Crystal Palace İNP
30.10.2024 Aston Villa Aston Villa 1-2 HT 1-1 Crystal Palace Crystal Palace İNLK
19.05.2024 Crystal Palace Crystal Palace 5-0 HT 2-0 Aston Villa Aston Villa İNP
16.09.2023 Aston Villa Aston Villa 3-1 HT 0-0 Crystal Palace Crystal Palace İNP
04.03.2023 Aston Villa Aston Villa 1-0 HT 1-0 Crystal Palace Crystal Palace İNP
20.08.2022 Crystal Palace Crystal Palace 3-1 HT 1-1 Aston Villa Aston Villa İNP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Crystal Palace
4-1
AWAY Aston Villa
4.31 xG 0.38
36% Ball Possession 64%
19 Total Shots 6
6 Shots on Target 2
3 Corners 8
187 Passes 404
73% Pass Accuracy 86%
29 Box Touches 21
12 Crosses 13
3 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Crystal Palace vs Aston Villa
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Crystal Palace swept aside Aston Villa 4-1. Half-time: 1-0. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Crystal Palace as the likeliest winner at 46%, and the 4-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Crystal Palace had 36% of the ball to Aston Villa's 64%, shots finished 19-6, expected goals 4.31 to 0.38.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Crystal Palace had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.17 goals for Crystal Palace and 1.33 for Aston Villa.

What was the final score of Crystal Palace vs Aston Villa?

Crystal Palace 4-1 Aston Villa in the England - Premier League on 25/02/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Crystal Palace vs Aston Villa?

Before kick-off our model rated a Crystal Palace win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Crystal Palace 46%, draw 26%, Aston Villa 28%. The final score 4-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Crystal Palace) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Crystal Palace) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
İNP More England - Premier League
25 Feb 2025
22:30 Brighton & Hove Albion vs Bournemouth Analysis →
22:30 Wolverhampton vs Fulham Analysis →
23:15 Chelsea vs Southampton Analysis →