Aston Villa 2-2 Crystal Palace — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Premier League, 23 Nov 2024

Aston Villa
2-2 HT 1-2
Crystal Palace
📅23/11/2024 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 2-1 ✗
England - Premier League – 2024/2025

Aston Villa vs Crystal Palace Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
46%
1.75
Draw
28%
3.54
Away
26%
4.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
1.95
Over 2.5
50%
1.78
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.76
No
47%
1.95
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
3.58
2-3 Goals
42%
1.82
4-5 Goals
23%
3.42
6+ Goals
10%
12.65
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
2.26
1/2
8%
34.5
1/X
9%
14.35
X/1
14%
4.12
X/2
9%
9.41
X/X
11%
5.11
2/1 EV+ ✗
11%
23.85
2/2
9%
7.17
2/X
7%
15.1
Value flag · 2/1 at 23.85 — our 11% vs market 2.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
47%
Home Win
54%
-6.9pp
28%
Draw
25%
+2.4pp
26%
Away Win
21%
+4.6pp
50%
Under 2.5
48%
+2.1pp
50%
Over 2.5
52%
-2.2pp
53%
BTTS Yes
53%
+0.6pp
47%
BTTS No
47%
-0.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Aston Villa v Crystal Palace — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Aston Villa EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Crystal Palace EU Bookmakers 24%
+4% / +12% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / -7%
2.10/1.20 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.97/1.50
+13% / -8% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -15% / +29%
55% Ball Possession 45%
13 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
398 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 314 · 78%
29.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.4
19.0 Crosses 15.4
2.4 Yellow Cards 2.2

Aston Villa vs Crystal Palace Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Aston Villa
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Crystal Palace
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
1.41 xG 1.42
55% Ball Possession 45%
12 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 4
426 Passes 340
85% Pass Accuracy 82%
28 Box Touches 22
14 Crosses 14
2 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
30.10.2024 Aston Villa Aston Villa 1-2 HT 1-1 Crystal Palace Crystal Palace İNLK
19.05.2024 Crystal Palace Crystal Palace 5-0 HT 2-0 Aston Villa Aston Villa İNP
16.09.2023 Aston Villa Aston Villa 3-1 HT 0-0 Crystal Palace Crystal Palace İNP
04.03.2023 Aston Villa Aston Villa 1-0 HT 1-0 Crystal Palace Crystal Palace İNP
20.08.2022 Crystal Palace Crystal Palace 3-1 HT 1-1 Aston Villa Aston Villa İNP
15.05.2022 Aston Villa Aston Villa 1-1 HT 0-0 Crystal Palace Crystal Palace İNP

Aston Villa 2-2 Crystal Palace — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Aston Villa
2-2
AWAY Crystal Palace
3.11 xG 1.26
70% Ball Possession 30%
17 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 6
10 Corners 1
531 Passes 180
86% Pass Accuracy 69%
48 Box Touches 17
20 Crosses 15
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Aston Villa vs Crystal Palace
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Aston Villa and Crystal Palace couldn't be separated, finishing 2-2. Half-time: 1-2.

Our pre-match lean was Aston Villa at 47%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 53%.

On the day, Aston Villa had 70% of the ball to Crystal Palace's 30%, shots finished 17-13, expected goals 3.11 to 1.26.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Crystal Palace led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Aston Villa and 2.00 for Crystal Palace.

What was the final score of Aston Villa vs Crystal Palace?

Aston Villa 2-2 Crystal Palace in the England - Premier League on 23/11/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Aston Villa vs Crystal Palace?

Before kick-off our model rated a Aston Villa win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split Aston Villa 47%, draw 28%, Crystal Palace 26%. The final score 2-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Aston Villa) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Aston Villa) ✓ BTTS Yes
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