Aston Villa 1-2 Crystal Palace — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - League Cup, 30 Oct 2024

📅30/10/2024 · 🕒22:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
33%
2.33
Draw
31%
3.18
Away
36%
2.69
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.95
Over 2.5
45%
1.78
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.63
No
51%
2.13
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
29%
3.58
2-3 Goals
41%
1.8
4-5 Goals
21%
3.35
6+ Goals
9%
12.25
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.58 — our 29% vs market 22.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
3.45
1/2
8%
29.5
1/X
7%
12.25
X/1
12%
5.46
X/2
10%
6.05
X/X
17%
4.58
2/1
6%
27.0
2/2
18%
3.99
2/X
7%
12.35
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
33%
Home Win
39%
-6.0pp
31%
Draw
28%
+3.1pp
36%
Away Win
33%
+2.9pp
55%
Under 2.5
48%
+7.0pp
45%
Over 2.5
52%
-7.0pp
49%
BTTS Yes
57%
-8.1pp
51%
BTTS No
43%
+8.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Aston Villa EU Bookmakers 43%
Head to Head
AWAY Crystal Palace EU Bookmakers 37%
-54% / -54% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -21% / -21%
0.00/2.00 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.51/0.95
-100% / -36% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -65% / +22%
53% Ball Possession 47%
13 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 5
355 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 302 · 75%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 22.9
Crosses 20.1
Yellow Cards 1.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Aston Villa
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Crystal Palace
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
1.30 xG 1.49
51% Ball Possession 49%
11 Total Shots 11
3 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 4
398 Passes 386
84% Pass Accuracy 84%
24 Box Touches 24
14 Crosses 17
3 Yellow Cards 3
19.05.2024 Crystal Palace Crystal Palace 5-0 HT 2-0 Aston Villa Aston Villa İNP
16.09.2023 Aston Villa Aston Villa 3-1 HT 0-0 Crystal Palace Crystal Palace İNP
04.03.2023 Aston Villa Aston Villa 1-0 HT 1-0 Crystal Palace Crystal Palace İNP
20.08.2022 Crystal Palace Crystal Palace 3-1 HT 1-1 Aston Villa Aston Villa İNP
15.05.2022 Aston Villa Aston Villa 1-1 HT 0-0 Crystal Palace Crystal Palace İNP
27.11.2021 Crystal Palace Crystal Palace 1-2 HT 0-1 Aston Villa Aston Villa İNP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Aston Villa
1-2
AWAY Crystal Palace
1.14 xG 0.56
62% Ball Possession 38%
17 Total Shots 12
9 Shots on Target 2
5 Corners 6
442 Passes 228
87% Pass Accuracy 76%
36 Box Touches 15
11 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Aston Villa vs Crystal Palace
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Crystal Palace nicked a narrow win over Aston Villa 2-1 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

We called this one close before kick-off — 33% / 31% / 36% — and on the day Crystal Palace made the difference. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Aston Villa had 62% of the ball to Crystal Palace's 38%, shots finished 17-12, expected goals 1.14 to 0.56 — the balance of chances actually favoured Aston Villa.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Aston Villa had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Aston Villa and 1.83 for Crystal Palace.

What was the final score of Aston Villa vs Crystal Palace?

Aston Villa 1-2 Crystal Palace in the England - League Cup on 30/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Aston Villa vs Crystal Palace?

Before kick-off our model rated an Crystal Palace win the most likely single outcome at about 36%, with the full match-result split Aston Villa 33%, draw 31%, Crystal Palace 36%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Crystal Palace) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Crystal Palace) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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