Manchester United 5-2 Leicester City — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - League Cup, 30 Oct 2024

Manchester United
5-2 HT 4-2
Leicester City
📅30/10/2024 · 🕒22:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-0 ✗ 2nd Score 2-1 ✗
England - League Cup – 2024/2025

Manchester United vs Leicester City Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
58%
1.28
Draw
21%
5.15
Away
21%
8.19
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
45%
2.59
Over 2.5
55%
1.45
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.88
No
51%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
5.8
2-3 Goals
37%
2.04
4-5 Goals
26%
2.61
6+ Goals
12%
6.0
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
32%
1.41
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
7%
24.45
X/1
13%
3.52
X/2
9%
22.7
X/X
7%
9.05
2/1 EV+ ✗
13%
21.85
2/2
6%
16.7
2/X
7%
24.0
Value flag · 2/1 at 21.85 — our 13% vs market 2.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ Over 2.5 ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
58%
Home Win
74%
-15.5pp
21%
Draw
16%
+4.0pp
21%
Away Win
10%
+11.5pp
45%
Under 2.5
35%
+9.9pp
55%
Over 2.5
65%
-9.9pp
49%
BTTS Yes
49%
+0.0pp
51%
BTTS No
51%
-0.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Manchester United v Leicester City — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Manchester United EU Bookmakers 78%
Head to Head
AWAY Leicester City EU Bookmakers 12%
+1% / -1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -12% / -12%
2.45/0.64 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.74/2.59
+46% / +112% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -36% / -10%
57% Ball Possession 43%
16 Total Shots 8
7 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 4
479 · 85% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 341 · 79%
38.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 13.7
13.4 Crosses 9.4
1.3 Yellow Cards 2.0

Manchester United vs Leicester City Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Manchester United
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Leicester City
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
1.46 xG 1.41
52% Ball Possession 48%
13 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
456 Passes 417
84% Pass Accuracy 83%
23 Box Touches 19
16 Crosses 12
2 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
19.02.2023 Manchester United Manchester United 3-0 HT 1-0 Leicester City Leicester City İNP
01.09.2022 Leicester City Leicester City 0-1 HT 0-1 Manchester United Manchester United İNP
02.04.2022 Manchester United Manchester United 1-1 HT 0-0 Leicester City Leicester City İNP
16.10.2021 Leicester City Leicester City 4-2 HT 1-1 Manchester United Manchester United İNP
11.05.2021 Manchester United Manchester United 1-2 HT 1-1 Leicester City Leicester City İNP
21.03.2021 Leicester City Leicester City 3-1 HT 1-1 Manchester United Manchester United FAK

Manchester United 5-2 Leicester City — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Manchester United
5-2
AWAY Leicester City
2.95 xG 0.94
56% Ball Possession 44%
23 Total Shots 16
9 Shots on Target 7
5 Corners 3
488 Passes 364
87% Pass Accuracy 85%
30 Box Touches 25
11 Crosses 13
0 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Manchester United vs Leicester City
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Manchester United ran out comfortable winners over Leicester City 5-2. Half-time: 4-2. 7 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Manchester United as the likeliest winner at 58%, and the 5-2 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (55%) came in.

On the day, Manchester United had 56% of the ball to Leicester City's 44%, shots finished 23-16, expected goals 2.95 to 0.94.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Leicester City led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Manchester United and 1.67 for Leicester City.

What was the final score of Manchester United vs Leicester City?

Manchester United 5-2 Leicester City in the England - League Cup on 30/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Manchester United vs Leicester City?

Before kick-off our model rated a Manchester United win the most likely single outcome at about 58%, with the full match-result split Manchester United 58%, draw 21%, Leicester City 21%. The final score 5-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Manchester United), Over 2.5 — while BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Manchester United) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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