Newcastle United 2-0 Chelsea — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - League Cup, 30 Oct 2024

Newcastle United
2-0 HT 2-0
Chelsea
📅30/10/2024 · 🕒22:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-0 ✗
England - League Cup – 2025/2026

Newcastle United vs Chelsea Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
2.02
Draw
29%
3.45
Away
28%
3.08
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
2.23
Over 2.5
46%
1.59
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.5
No
52%
2.4
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
27%
4.76
2-3 Goals
45%
1.92
4-5 Goals
19%
2.83
6+ Goals
9%
7.79
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.76 — our 27% vs market 16.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
2.74
1/2
7%
30.5
1/X
8%
12.35
X/1
12%
4.99
X/2
12%
7.26
X/X
14%
5.42
2/1
8%
22.3
2/2
9%
4.63
2/X
7%
12.6
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
43%
Home Win
46%
-2.5pp
29%
Draw
26%
+3.5pp
28%
Away Win
29%
-0.9pp
54%
Under 2.5
41%
+12.9pp
46%
Over 2.5
59%
-12.9pp
48%
BTTS Yes
62%
-14.1pp
52%
BTTS No
38%
+14.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Newcastle United v Chelsea — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Newcastle United EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY Chelsea EU Bookmakers 32%
+14% / +14% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +24% / +24%
1.59/0.55 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.67/1.13
-71% / – Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +17% / +150%
50% Ball Possession 50%
15 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
349 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 344 · 78%
14.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 28.3
18.9 Crosses 23.7
0.0 Yellow Cards 1.7

Newcastle United vs Chelsea Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Newcastle United
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Chelsea
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.39 xG 1.21
44% Ball Possession 56%
10 Total Shots 13
3 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
336 Passes 464
81% Pass Accuracy 85%
22 Box Touches 24
16 Crosses 17
3 Yellow Cards 4
The Meetings
27.10.2024 Chelsea Chelsea 2-1 HT 1-1 Newcastle United Newcastle United İNP
11.03.2024 Chelsea Chelsea 3-2 HT 1-1 Newcastle United Newcastle United İNP
19.12.2023 Chelsea Chelsea 1-1 HT 0-1 Newcastle United Newcastle United İNLK
25.11.2023 Newcastle United Newcastle United 4-1 HT 1-1 Chelsea Chelsea İNP
28.05.2023 Chelsea Chelsea 1-1 HT 1-1 Newcastle United Newcastle United İNP
12.11.2022 Newcastle United Newcastle United 1-0 HT 0-0 Chelsea Chelsea İNP
POST-MATCH Newcastle United vs Chelsea
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Newcastle United got the better of Chelsea 2-0.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Newcastle United as the likeliest winner at 43%, and the 2-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Newcastle United and 1.33 for Chelsea.

What was the final score of Newcastle United vs Chelsea?

Newcastle United 2-0 Chelsea in the England - League Cup on 30/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Newcastle United vs Chelsea?

Before kick-off our model rated a Newcastle United win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Newcastle United 43%, draw 29%, Chelsea 28%. The final score 2-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Newcastle United), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Newcastle United) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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