Chelsea 2-1 Newcastle United — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Premier League, 27 Oct 2024

📅27/10/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
47%
1.76
Draw
23%
3.8
Away
30%
3.48
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
41%
2.51
Over 2.5
59%
1.48
Both Teams to Score
Yes
55%
1.49
No
45%
2.44
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
21%
5.52
2-3 Goals
36%
2.01
4-5 Goals
28%
2.65
6+ Goals
15%
6.36
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
2.26
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
7%
13.6
X/1
19%
4.49
X/2
13%
8.79
X/X
8%
6.26
2/1
7%
20.0
2/2
11%
5.64
2/X
8%
13.85
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
47%
Home Win
52%
-4.8pp
23%
Draw
23%
+0.1pp
30%
Away Win
25%
+4.7pp
41%
Under 2.5
36%
+5.0pp
59%
Over 2.5
64%
-5.0pp
55%
BTTS Yes
63%
-8.3pp
45%
BTTS No
37%
+8.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Chelsea EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Newcastle United EU Bookmakers 29%
-2% / +2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +5% / +21%
2.13/1.00 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.19/1.53
+0% / -13% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +4% / +25%
54% Ball Possession 46%
15 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
410 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 330 · 79%
30.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.1
18.7 Crosses 17.0
2.5 Yellow Cards 1.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Chelsea
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Newcastle United
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.13 xG 1.13
60% Ball Possession 40%
12 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 3
481 Passes 297
85% Pass Accuracy 78%
22 Box Touches 21
16 Crosses 15
4 Yellow Cards 3
11.03.2024 Chelsea Chelsea 3-2 HT 1-1 Newcastle United Newcastle United İNP
19.12.2023 Chelsea Chelsea 1-1 HT 0-1 Newcastle United Newcastle United İNLK
25.11.2023 Newcastle United Newcastle United 4-1 HT 1-1 Chelsea Chelsea İNP
28.05.2023 Chelsea Chelsea 1-1 HT 1-1 Newcastle United Newcastle United İNP
12.11.2022 Newcastle United Newcastle United 1-0 HT 0-0 Chelsea Chelsea İNP
13.03.2022 Chelsea Chelsea 1-0 HT 0-0 Newcastle United Newcastle United İNP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Chelsea
2-1
AWAY Newcastle United
1.61 xG 1.81
50% Ball Possession 50%
17 Total Shots 11
7 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 4
388 Passes 362
85% Pass Accuracy 80%
32 Box Touches 24
20 Crosses 11
6 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Chelsea vs Newcastle United
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Chelsea edged past Newcastle United 2-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Chelsea as the likeliest winner at 47%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (59%), both teams to score (55%) came in.

On the day, Chelsea had 50% of the ball to Newcastle United's 50%, shots finished 17-11, expected goals 1.61 to 1.81.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Chelsea and 1.50 for Newcastle United.

What was the final score of Chelsea vs Newcastle United?

Chelsea 2-1 Newcastle United in the England - Premier League on 27/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Chelsea vs Newcastle United?

Before kick-off our model rated a Chelsea win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split Chelsea 47%, draw 23%, Newcastle United 30%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Chelsea), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Chelsea) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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İNP More England - Premier League
27 Oct 2024
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