Chelsea vs Newcastle United Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Chelsea v Newcastle United — Team-Based Signals
Chelsea vs Newcastle United Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
1-1
HT 0-1
Newcastle United
İNLK
4-1
HT 1-1
Chelsea
İNP
1-1
HT 1-1
Newcastle United
İNP
1-0
HT 0-0
Chelsea
İNP
1-0
HT 0-0
Newcastle United
İNP
Chelsea 2-1 Newcastle United — Actual Match Statistics
Chelsea edged past Newcastle United 2-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.
Just as the model leaned, our model had Chelsea as the likeliest winner at 47%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (59%), both teams to score (55%) came in.
On the day, Chelsea had 50% of the ball to Newcastle United's 50%, shots finished 17-11, expected goals 1.61 to 1.81.
For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Chelsea and 1.50 for Newcastle United.
What was the final score of Chelsea vs Newcastle United?
Chelsea 2-1 Newcastle United in the England - Premier League on 27/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Chelsea vs Newcastle United?
Before kick-off our model rated a Chelsea win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split Chelsea 47%, draw 23%, Newcastle United 30%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Chelsea), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.