Arsenal 2-2 Liverpool — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Premier League, 27 Oct 2024

📅27/10/2024 · 🕒19:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
2.12
Draw
28%
3.18
Away
29%
3.08
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
1.9
Over 2.5
53%
1.82
Both Teams to Score
Yes
56%
1.68
No
44%
2.06
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
3.4
2-3 Goals
40%
1.79
4-5 Goals EV+ ✓
25%
3.49
6+ Goals
11%
13.5
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 3.49 — our 25% vs market 23.2%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
3.03
1/2
9%
34.0
1/X
7%
12.4
X/1
16%
4.95
X/2
8%
6.77
X/X
9%
4.48
2/1
7%
26.0
2/2
11%
4.74
2/X
12%
12.75
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
43%
Home Win
43%
+0.2pp
28%
Draw
28%
+0.1pp
29%
Away Win
29%
-0.3pp
47%
Under 2.5
49%
-1.5pp
53%
Over 2.5
51%
+1.4pp
56%
BTTS Yes
56%
+0.6pp
44%
BTTS No
44%
-0.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Arsenal EU Bookmakers 47%
Head to Head
AWAY Liverpool EU Bookmakers 32%
+7% / +9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +1%
2.24/1.13 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.11/2.19
+42% / -1% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +18% / -17%
54% Ball Possession 46%
13 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
420 · 84% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 346 · 80%
32.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.7
18.2 Crosses 16.3
2.4 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Arsenal
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Liverpool
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
1.93 xG 1.42
49% Ball Possession 52%
13 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 3
354 Passes 380
81% Pass Accuracy 82%
36 Box Touches 26
13 Crosses 14
3 Yellow Cards 3
01.08.2024 Liverpool Liverpool 2-1 HT 2-1 Arsenal Arsenal HAZ
04.02.2024 Arsenal Arsenal 3-1 HT 1-1 Liverpool Liverpool İNP
07.01.2024 Arsenal Arsenal 0-2 HT 0-0 Liverpool Liverpool FAK
23.12.2023 Liverpool Liverpool 1-1 HT 1-1 Arsenal Arsenal İNP
09.04.2023 Liverpool Liverpool 2-2 HT 1-2 Arsenal Arsenal İNP
09.10.2022 Arsenal Arsenal 3-2 HT 2-1 Liverpool Liverpool İNP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Arsenal
2-2
AWAY Liverpool
0.92 xG 0.81
45% Ball Possession 55%
9 Total Shots 9
3 Shots on Target 4
1 Corners 3
306 Passes 387
80% Pass Accuracy 83%
33 Box Touches 27
13 Crosses 24
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Arsenal vs Liverpool
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Arsenal and Liverpool shared the points in a 2-2 draw. It was 2-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match lean was Arsenal at 43%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. We had also flagged both teams to score (56%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Arsenal had 45% of the ball to Liverpool's 55%, shots finished 9-9, expected goals 0.92 to 0.81.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Arsenal and 1.67 for Liverpool.

What was the final score of Arsenal vs Liverpool?

Arsenal 2-2 Liverpool in the England - Premier League on 27/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Arsenal vs Liverpool?

Before kick-off our model rated a Arsenal win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Arsenal 43%, draw 28%, Liverpool 29%. The final score 2-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Arsenal) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Arsenal) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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İNP More England - Premier League
27 Oct 2024
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