Arsenal 3-1 Liverpool — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Premier League, 4 Feb 2024

📅04/02/2024 · 🕒19:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
39%
2.09
Draw
30%
3.45
Away
31%
2.94
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
2.1
Over 2.5
49%
1.67
Both Teams to Score
Yes
55%
1.6
No
45%
2.19
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
4.08
2-3 Goals
41%
1.84
4-5 Goals
23%
3.04
6+ Goals
11%
9.63
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
2.9
1/2
8%
30.5
1/X
9%
12.6
X/1
13%
4.94
X/2
10%
6.73
X/X
12%
5.1
2/1 EV+ ✗
9%
23.45
2/2
13%
4.47
2/X
9%
12.85
Value flag · 2/1 at 23.45 — our 9% vs market 2.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
39%
Home Win
44%
-5.2pp
30%
Draw
26%
+4.4pp
31%
Away Win
30%
+0.7pp
51%
Under 2.5
44%
+7.1pp
49%
Over 2.5
56%
-7.1pp
55%
BTTS Yes
58%
-3.4pp
45%
BTTS No
42%
+3.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Arsenal EU Bookmakers 48%
Head to Head
AWAY Liverpool EU Bookmakers 34%
+5% / +7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / +3%
2.04/1.25 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.24/1.95
+37% / -5% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +26% / -4%
51% Ball Possession 49%
13 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 6
371 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 354 · 78%
33.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 22.0
19.2 Crosses 15.8
1.8 Yellow Cards 1.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Arsenal
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Liverpool
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
1.35 xG 1.41
47% Ball Possession 53%
11 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
349 Passes 397
80% Pass Accuracy 82%
29 Box Touches 27
12 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 3
07.01.2024 Arsenal Arsenal 0-2 HT 0-0 Liverpool Liverpool FAK
23.12.2023 Liverpool Liverpool 1-1 HT 1-1 Arsenal Arsenal İNP
09.04.2023 Liverpool Liverpool 2-2 HT 1-2 Arsenal Arsenal İNP
09.10.2022 Arsenal Arsenal 3-2 HT 2-1 Liverpool Liverpool İNP
16.03.2022 Arsenal Arsenal 0-2 HT 0-0 Liverpool Liverpool İNP
20.01.2022 Arsenal Arsenal 0-2 HT 0-1 Liverpool Liverpool İNLK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Arsenal
3-1
AWAY Liverpool
3.50 xG 0.37
43% Ball Possession 57%
15 Total Shots 10
7 Shots on Target 1
2 Corners 4
304 Passes 441
78% Pass Accuracy 84%
31 Box Touches 14
12 Crosses 19
6 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Arsenal vs Liverpool
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Arsenal beat Liverpool 3-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

We called this one close before kick-off — 39% / 30% / 31% — and on the day Arsenal made the difference. The goals side of the card held up too — both teams to score (55%) came in.

On the day, Arsenal had 43% of the ball to Liverpool's 57%, shots finished 15-10, expected goals 3.50 to 0.37.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Liverpool led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Arsenal and 1.83 for Liverpool.

What was the final score of Arsenal vs Liverpool?

Arsenal 3-1 Liverpool in the England - Premier League on 04/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Arsenal vs Liverpool?

Before kick-off our model rated a Arsenal win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Arsenal 39%, draw 30%, Liverpool 31%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Arsenal), BTTS Yes — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Arsenal) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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İNP More England - Premier League
4 Feb 2024
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