Bournemouth 1-1 Nottingham Forest — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Premier League, 4 Feb 2024

📅04/02/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
49%
1.64
Draw
26%
3.8
Away
25%
4.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
2.23
Over 2.5
51%
1.59
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.63
No
52%
2.13
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
27%
4.53
2-3 Goals
37%
1.89
4-5 Goals
25%
2.87
6+ Goals
11%
8.24
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.53 — our 27% vs market 17.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
2.06
1/2
9%
34.0
1/X
7%
14.7
X/1
22%
4.05
X/2
8%
9.85
X/X
12%
6.0
2/1
6%
20.6
2/2
8%
6.96
2/X
6%
15.15
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
49%
Home Win
56%
-7.0pp
25%
Draw
23%
+2.7pp
25%
Away Win
21%
+4.4pp
49%
Under 2.5
41%
+7.9pp
51%
Over 2.5
59%
-7.9pp
48%
BTTS Yes
57%
-8.7pp
52%
BTTS No
43%
+8.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Bournemouth EU Bookmakers 61%
Head to Head
AWAY Nottingham Forest EU Bookmakers 24%
+8% / +9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -13% / -13%
1.51/0.98 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.06/1.45
+9% / +84% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -24% / -20%
57% Ball Possession 43%
15 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
387 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 280 · 73%
23.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.3
15.5 Crosses 13.3
1.1 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Bournemouth
4W-2D-0L
AWAY Nottingham Forest
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
0.93 xG 1.16
54% Ball Possession 46%
11 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
336 Passes 276
77% Pass Accuracy 73%
23 Box Touches 20
18 Crosses 21
2 Yellow Cards 2
23.12.2023 Nottingham Forest Nottingham Forest 2-3 HT 0-0 Bournemouth Bournemouth İNP
21.01.2023 Bournemouth Bournemouth 1-1 HT 1-0 Nottingham Forest Nottingham Forest İNP
03.09.2022 Nottingham Forest Nottingham Forest 2-3 HT 2-0 Bournemouth Bournemouth İNP
03.05.2022 Bournemouth Bournemouth 1-0 HT 0-0 Nottingham Forest Nottingham Forest İNCL
14.08.2021 Nottingham Forest Nottingham Forest 1-2 HT 0-1 Bournemouth Bournemouth İNCL
13.02.2021 Nottingham Forest Nottingham Forest 0-0 HT 0-0 Bournemouth Bournemouth İNCL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Bournemouth
1-1
AWAY Nottingham Forest
1.27 xG 0.53
44% Ball Possession 56%
9 Total Shots 8
2 Shots on Target 6
11 Corners 6
229 Passes 329
69% Pass Accuracy 77%
23 Box Touches 14
23 Crosses 20
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Bournemouth vs Nottingham Forest
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Bournemouth and Nottingham Forest couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1.

Our pre-match lean was Bournemouth at 49%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

On the day, Bournemouth had 44% of the ball to Nottingham Forest's 56%, shots finished 9-8, expected goals 1.27 to 0.53.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Bournemouth had the better of it with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Bournemouth and 1.00 for Nottingham Forest.

What was the final score of Bournemouth vs Nottingham Forest?

Bournemouth 1-1 Nottingham Forest in the England - Premier League on 04/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Bournemouth vs Nottingham Forest?

Before kick-off our model rated a Bournemouth win the most likely single outcome at about 49%, with the full match-result split Bournemouth 49%, draw 25%, Nottingham Forest 25%. The final score 1-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Bournemouth) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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