Arsenal 0-2 Liverpool — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - FA Cup, 7 Jan 2024

📅07/01/2024 · 🕒19:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
2.05
Draw
26%
3.45
Away
32%
2.94
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
2.23
Over 2.5
51%
1.59
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.55
No
46%
2.29
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
4.36
2-3 Goals
40%
1.86
4-5 Goals
22%
2.88
6+ Goals
13%
8.47
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
2.85
1/2
10%
30.0
1/X
6%
12.55
X/1
14%
4.98
X/2
13%
6.84
X/X
11%
5.29
2/1
7%
23.0
2/2
10%
4.43
2/X
9%
12.75
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
44%
-2.9pp
26%
Draw
25%
+0.5pp
33%
Away Win
30%
+2.4pp
49%
Under 2.5
41%
+7.9pp
51%
Over 2.5
59%
-7.9pp
54%
BTTS Yes
60%
-6.2pp
46%
BTTS No
40%
+6.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Arsenal EU Bookmakers 49%
Head to Head
AWAY Liverpool EU Bookmakers 34%
-1% / -1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -22% / -22%
2.44/1.41 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.59/1.67
+29% / -26% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +6% / -27%
53% Ball Possession 47%
12 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
406 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 357 · 79%
56.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 27.6
20.1 Crosses 14.2
2.7 Yellow Cards 3.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Arsenal
1W-3D-2L
AWAY Liverpool
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.08 xG 1.44
42% Ball Possession 58%
9 Total Shots 13
3 Shots on Target 3
3 Corners 5
299 Passes 438
74% Pass Accuracy 82%
22 Box Touches 30
12 Crosses 20
2 Yellow Cards 2
23.12.2023 Liverpool Liverpool 1-1 HT 1-1 Arsenal Arsenal İNP
09.04.2023 Liverpool Liverpool 2-2 HT 1-2 Arsenal Arsenal İNP
09.10.2022 Arsenal Arsenal 3-2 HT 2-1 Liverpool Liverpool İNP
16.03.2022 Arsenal Arsenal 0-2 HT 0-0 Liverpool Liverpool İNP
20.01.2022 Arsenal Arsenal 0-2 HT 0-1 Liverpool Liverpool İNLK
13.01.2022 Liverpool Liverpool 0-0 HT 0-0 Arsenal Arsenal İNLK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Arsenal
0-2
AWAY Liverpool
1.76 xG 0.64
54% Ball Possession 46%
18 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 2
394 Passes 339
82% Pass Accuracy 82%
51 Box Touches 26
16 Crosses 9
1 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Arsenal vs Liverpool
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Liverpool saw off Arsenal 2-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Arsenal at 42%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 54%.

On the day, Arsenal had 54% of the ball to Liverpool's 46%, shots finished 18-12, expected goals 1.76 to 0.64 — on chances, Arsenal could feel hard done by.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Liverpool led the recent series with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Arsenal and 1.50 for Liverpool.

What was the final score of Arsenal vs Liverpool?

Arsenal 0-2 Liverpool in the England - FA Cup on 07/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Arsenal vs Liverpool?

Before kick-off our model rated a Arsenal win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Arsenal 42%, draw 26%, Liverpool 33%. The final score 0-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Arsenal) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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