West Bromwich 4-1 Aldershot Town — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - FA Cup, 7 Jan 2024

📅07/01/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
50%
1.37
Draw
23%
4.62
Away
27%
5.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
37%
2.59
Over 2.5
63%
1.45
Both Teams to Score
Yes
57%
1.73
No
43%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
21%
5.33
2-3 Goals
34%
1.97
4-5 Goals
30%
2.63
6+ Goals
15%
6.39
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
32%
1.6
1/2 EV+ ✗
8%
34.0
1/X
5%
19.05
X/1
12%
3.65
X/2
9%
15.55
X/X
9%
7.67
2/1
6%
20.1
2/2
11%
11.15
2/X
8%
19.2
Value flag · 1/2 at 34.0 — our 8% vs market 1.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
50%
Home Win
68%
-18.0pp
23%
Draw
18%
+4.4pp
27%
Away Win
14%
+13.6pp
37%
Under 2.5
35%
+2.6pp
63%
Over 2.5
65%
-2.6pp
57%
BTTS Yes
54%
+3.2pp
43%
BTTS No
46%
-3.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME West Bromwich EU Bookmakers 73%
Head to Head
AWAY Aldershot Town EU Bookmakers 17%
-3% / -3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +18% / +17%
3.82/0.32 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 4.50/3.44
+55% / +150% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +150% / -39%
58% Ball Possession 42%
15 Total Shots 8
7 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 4
416 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 241 · 68%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME West Bromwich
4-1
AWAY Aldershot Town
52% Ball Possession 48%
17 Total Shots 10
8 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH West Bromwich vs Aldershot Town
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

West Bromwich ran out comfortable winners over Aldershot Town 4-1. Half-time: 3-0. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Just as the model leaned, our model had West Bromwich as the likeliest winner at 50%, and the 4-1 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (63%), both teams to score (57%) came in.

On the day, West Bromwich had 52% of the ball to Aldershot Town's 48%, shots finished 17-10.

What was the final score of West Bromwich vs Aldershot Town?

West Bromwich 4-1 Aldershot Town in the England - FA Cup on 07/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for West Bromwich vs Aldershot Town?

Before kick-off our model rated a West Bromwich win the most likely single outcome at about 50%, with the full match-result split West Bromwich 50%, draw 23%, Aldershot Town 27%. The final score 4-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (West Bromwich), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (West Bromwich) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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