Shrewsbury 0-1 Wrexham — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - FA Cup, 7 Jan 2024

Shrewsbury
0-1 HT 0-0
Wrexham
📅07/01/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 ✗ 2nd Score 2-1 ✗
England - FA Cup – 2023/2024

Shrewsbury vs Wrexham Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
37%
3.17
Draw
25%
3.35
Away
38%
2.03
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
46%
1.9
Over 2.5
54%
1.82
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.75
No
48%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
3.15
2-3 Goals
38%
1.76
4-5 Goals EV+ ✗
28%
3.61
6+ Goals
11%
14.9
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 3.61 — our 28% vs market 21.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
5.21
1/2
6%
25.0
1/X
9%
13.9
X/1
11%
6.98
X/2
10%
4.46
X/X
9%
4.6
2/1 EV+ ✗
11%
34.0
2/2
22%
2.78
2/X
7%
13.5
Value flag · 2/1 at 34.0 — our 11% vs market 1.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
37%
Home Win
28%
+8.5pp
25%
Draw
26%
-1.4pp
38%
Away Win
45%
-7.1pp
46%
Under 2.5
49%
-2.5pp
54%
Over 2.5
51%
+2.5pp
52%
BTTS Yes
53%
-0.7pp
48%
BTTS No
47%
+0.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Shrewsbury v Wrexham — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Shrewsbury EU Bookmakers 32%
Head to Head
AWAY Wrexham EU Bookmakers 49%
+14% / +14% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +0%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
+24% / +24% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) – / –
50% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
341 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 299 · 73%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
– Crosses –
2.5 Yellow Cards –

Shrewsbury vs Wrexham Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Shrewsbury
5W-0D-1L
AWAY Wrexham
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
7 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
The Meetings
13.04.2008 Shrewsbury Shrewsbury 3-0 HT 1-0 Wrexham Wrexham İN2
04.11.2007 Wrexham Wrexham 0-1 HT 0-0 Shrewsbury Shrewsbury İN2
24.04.2007 Shrewsbury Shrewsbury 0-1 HT 0-0 Wrexham Wrexham İN2
25.02.2007 Wrexham Wrexham 1-3 HT 0-2 Shrewsbury Shrewsbury İN2
09.04.2006 Wrexham Wrexham 1-2 HT 0-2 Shrewsbury Shrewsbury İN2
03.01.2006 Shrewsbury Shrewsbury 1-0 HT 0-0 Wrexham Wrexham İN2

Shrewsbury 0-1 Wrexham — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Shrewsbury
0-1
AWAY Wrexham
1.53 xG 0.57
38% Ball Possession 62%
11 Total Shots 11
2 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
155 Passes 339
56% Pass Accuracy 72%
13 Box Touches 17
26 Crosses 17
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Shrewsbury vs Wrexham
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Wrexham edged past Shrewsbury 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match split (37% / 25% / 38%) promised a tight game; Wrexham found the edge the numbers couldn't.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 54% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, Shrewsbury had 38% of the ball to Wrexham's 62%, shots finished 11-11, expected goals 1.53 to 0.57 — on chances, Shrewsbury could feel hard done by.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Shrewsbury had the better of it with 5 wins. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Shrewsbury and 0.50 for Wrexham.

What was the final score of Shrewsbury vs Wrexham?

Shrewsbury 0-1 Wrexham in the England - FA Cup on 07/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Shrewsbury vs Wrexham?

Before kick-off our model rated an Wrexham win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Shrewsbury 37%, draw 25%, Wrexham 38%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Wrexham) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Wrexham) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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