Luton Town 0-0 Bolton Wanderers — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - FA Cup, 7 Jan 2024

📅07/01/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 3-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
45%
1.75
Draw
27%
3.72
Away
28%
3.83
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
46%
2.1
Over 2.5
54%
1.67
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.73
No
47%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
3.77
2-3 Goals
36%
1.81
4-5 Goals
27%
3.15
6+ Goals
14%
10.65
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
2.23
1/2
7%
34.0
1/X
7%
14.8
X/1
15%
4.02
X/2
7%
8.78
X/X
14%
5.51
2/1 EV+ ✗
9%
21.75
2/2
14%
6.51
2/X
6%
15.3
Value flag · 2/1 at 21.75 — our 9% vs market 2.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
45%
Home Win
53%
-8.3pp
27%
Draw
24%
+3.0pp
28%
Away Win
23%
+5.3pp
46%
Under 2.5
44%
+1.6pp
54%
Over 2.5
56%
-1.6pp
53%
BTTS Yes
54%
-0.9pp
47%
BTTS No
46%
+0.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Luton Town EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Bolton Wanderers EU Bookmakers 26%
-6% / -6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +29% / +29%
1.19/0.81 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.09/0.45
-40% / +42% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -16% / +150%
54% Ball Possession 46%
15 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
302 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 351 · 75%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.0 Yellow Cards
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Luton Town
0-0
AWAY Bolton Wanderers
1.12 xG 0.48
63% Ball Possession 37%
18 Total Shots 7
6 Shots on Target 2
11 Corners 2
411 Passes 211
83% Pass Accuracy 70%
39 Box Touches 15
38 Crosses 9
1 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Luton Town vs Bolton Wanderers
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Luton Town and Bolton Wanderers fought out a 0-0 stalemate. Neither side could find a way through.

Our pre-match lean was Luton Town at 45%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 54% and both teams to score was close to even at 53%.

On the day, Luton Town had 63% of the ball to Bolton Wanderers's 37%, shots finished 18-7, expected goals 1.12 to 0.48.

What was the final score of Luton Town vs Bolton Wanderers?

Luton Town 0-0 Bolton Wanderers in the England - FA Cup on 07/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Luton Town vs Bolton Wanderers?

Before kick-off our model rated a Luton Town win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Luton Town 45%, draw 27%, Bolton Wanderers 28%. The final score 0-0 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Luton Town) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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