Liverpool 2-1 Arsenal — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Friendlies, 1 Aug 2024

Liverpool
2-1 HT 2-1
Arsenal
📅01/08/2024 · 🕒02:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 ✗ 2nd Score 1-2 ✗
Friendlies – 2024/2025

Liverpool vs Arsenal Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
35%
3.08
Draw
26%
3.64
Away
39%
1.96
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
44%
2.59
Over 2.5
56%
1.45
Both Teams to Score
Yes
58%
1.41
No
42%
2.67
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
5.89
2-3 Goals
36%
2.05
4-5 Goals
27%
2.59
6+ Goals
13%
5.89
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
4.66
1/2 EV+ ✗
11%
20.85
1/X
8%
12.55
X/1
13%
7.73
X/2
13%
5.03
X/X
10%
5.97
2/1
7%
29.5
2/2
15%
2.57
2/X
8%
12.35
Value flag · 1/2 at 20.85 — our 11% vs market 2.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
35%
Home Win
29%
+5.9pp
26%
Draw
24%
+1.8pp
39%
Away Win
47%
-7.7pp
44%
Under 2.5
35%
+8.9pp
56%
Over 2.5
65%
-8.9pp
58%
BTTS Yes
67%
-9.1pp
42%
BTTS No
33%
+9.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Liverpool v Arsenal — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Liverpool EU Bookmakers 32%
Head to Head
AWAY Arsenal EU Bookmakers 51%
-34% / -34% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / -1%
0.40/1.61 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 3.01/2.16
-71% / -11% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +87% / -41%
45% Ball Possession 55%
12 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
332 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 466 · 85%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 30.6
– Crosses 17.4
– Yellow Cards 1.7

Liverpool vs Arsenal Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Liverpool
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Arsenal
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.31 xG 1.83
54% Ball Possession 46%
12 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 4
400 Passes 338
82% Pass Accuracy 79%
26 Box Touches 32
17 Crosses 12
3 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
04.02.2024 Arsenal Arsenal 3-1 HT 1-1 Liverpool Liverpool İNP
07.01.2024 Arsenal Arsenal 0-2 HT 0-0 Liverpool Liverpool FAK
23.12.2023 Liverpool Liverpool 1-1 HT 1-1 Arsenal Arsenal İNP
09.04.2023 Liverpool Liverpool 2-2 HT 1-2 Arsenal Arsenal İNP
09.10.2022 Arsenal Arsenal 3-2 HT 2-1 Liverpool Liverpool İNP
16.03.2022 Arsenal Arsenal 0-2 HT 0-0 Liverpool Liverpool İNP

Liverpool 2-1 Arsenal — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Liverpool
2-1
AWAY Arsenal
1.47 xG 1.11
40% Ball Possession 60%
10 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 2
1 Corners 6
318 Passes 502
83% Pass Accuracy 88%
15 Box Touches 39
4 Crosses 15
1 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Liverpool vs Arsenal
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Liverpool edged past Arsenal 2-1.

Our pre-match split (35% / 26% / 39%) promised a tight game; Liverpool found the edge the numbers couldn't. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (56%), both teams to score (58%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Liverpool had 40% of the ball to Arsenal's 60%, shots finished 10-13, expected goals 1.47 to 1.11.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Liverpool and 1.50 for Arsenal.

What was the final score of Liverpool vs Arsenal?

Liverpool 2-1 Arsenal in the Friendlies on 01/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Liverpool vs Arsenal?

Before kick-off our model rated an Arsenal win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Liverpool 35%, draw 26%, Arsenal 39%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Arsenal) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Arsenal) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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