Real Madrid 0-1 Milan — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Friendlies, 1 Aug 2024

📅01/08/2024 · 🕒03:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
39%
2.67
Draw
27%
3.72
Away
34%
2.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
36%
3.14
Over 2.5
64%
1.33
Both Teams to Score
Yes
63%
1.32
No
37%
3.08
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
16%
8.01
2-3 Goals
39%
2.31
4-5 Goals
30%
2.39
6+ Goals
15%
4.23
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
3.94
1/2
7%
19.85
1/X
7%
12.15
X/1
16%
7.26
X/2
12%
5.6
X/X
7%
6.63
2/1
7%
24.45
2/2
15%
2.75
2/X EV+ ✗
12%
12.0
Value flag · 2/X at 12.0 — our 12% vs market 5.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
39%
Home Win
34%
+5.8pp
27%
Draw
23%
+3.4pp
34%
Away Win
43%
-9.1pp
36%
Under 2.5
28%
+7.6pp
64%
Over 2.5
72%
-7.6pp
63%
BTTS Yes
72%
-8.4pp
37%
BTTS No
28%
+8.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Real Madrid EU Bookmakers 37%
Head to Head
AWAY Milan EU Bookmakers 48%
-1% / -1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -19% / -19%
1.44/1.31 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.92/0.93
+11% / +105% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -17% / -39%
45% Ball Possession 55%
11 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 5
343 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 418 · 84%
29.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 22.6
11.4 Crosses 8.6
1.0 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Real Madrid
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Milan
2.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.33 xG 0.87
57% Ball Possession 43%
19 Total Shots 10
7 Shots on Target 5
8 Corners 5
521 Passes 336
91% Pass Accuracy 86%
27 Box Touches 16
21 Crosses 14
0 Yellow Cards 1
24.07.2023 Real Madrid Real Madrid 3-2 HT 0-2 Milan Milan HAZ
08.08.2021 Real Madrid Real Madrid 0-0 HT 0-0 Milan Milan HAZ
11.08.2018 Real Madrid Real Madrid 3-1 HT 2-1 Milan Milan HAZ
30.07.2015 Real Madrid Real Madrid 0-0 HT 0-0 Milan Milan HAZ
30.12.2014 Real Madrid Real Madrid 2-4 HT 1-2 Milan Milan HAZ
09.08.2012 Real Madrid Real Madrid 5-1 HT 1-1 Milan Milan HAZ
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Real Madrid
0-1
AWAY Milan
0.65 xG 1.91
49% Ball Possession 51%
8 Total Shots 11
2 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 1
421 Passes 461
89% Pass Accuracy 90%
21 Box Touches 18
13 Crosses 6
0 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Real Madrid vs Milan
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Milan squeezed past Real Madrid 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match split (39% / 27% / 34%) promised a tight game; Milan found the edge the numbers couldn't. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (64%), both teams to score (63%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Real Madrid had 49% of the ball to Milan's 51%, shots finished 8-11, expected goals 0.65 to 1.91 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Milan's control.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Real Madrid had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 2.17 goals for Real Madrid and 1.33 for Milan.

What was the final score of Real Madrid vs Milan?

Real Madrid 0-1 Milan in the Friendlies on 01/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Real Madrid vs Milan?

Before kick-off our model rated a Real Madrid win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Real Madrid 39%, draw 27%, Milan 34%. The final score 0-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Real Madrid) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
HAZ More Friendlies
1 Aug 2024
02:30 Chelsea vs Club America Analysis →
02:30 Liverpool vs Arsenal Analysis →
03:00 Crystal Palace vs Wolverhampton Analysis →
03:00 RB Leipzig vs Aston Villa Analysis →
05:00 Manchester United vs Real Betis Analysis →
12:30 Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs Stuttgart Analysis →