Barcelona 4-4 Atletico Madrid — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - Copa del Rey, 25 Feb 2025

📅25/02/2025 · 🕒00:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 3-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
44%
1.57
Draw
27%
3.94
Away
29%
4.31
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
2.29
Over 2.5
51%
1.56
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.63
No
47%
2.13
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
4.47
2-3 Goals
39%
1.88
4-5 Goals
24%
2.78
6+ Goals
12%
7.68
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
1.99
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
7%
14.55
X/1
18%
4.25
X/2
12%
10.45
X/X
14%
6.29
2/1
7%
19.9
2/2
11%
7.76
2/X
6%
16.1
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our call
BTTS Yes — 53%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Home Win Over 2.5 BTTS Yes — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
44%
Home Win
59%
-14.8pp
27%
Draw
22%
+5.2pp
29%
Away Win
20%
+9.8pp
49%
Under 2.5
40%
+8.8pp
51%
Over 2.5
60%
-8.8pp
53%
BTTS Yes
57%
-3.9pp
47%
BTTS No
43%
+3.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Barcelona EU Bookmakers 64%
Head to Head
AWAY Atletico Madrid EU Bookmakers 23%
+1% / -1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -32% / -32%
2.16/1.40 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.35/1.72
+1% / +91% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -19% / -58%
59% Ball Possession 41%
15 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
504 · 86% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 319 · 79%
55.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 26.0
18.4 Crosses 19.0
2.6 Yellow Cards 5.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Barcelona
5W-0D-1L
AWAY Atletico Madrid
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
1.76 xG 1.10
60% Ball Possession 40%
12 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
524 Passes 315
88% Pass Accuracy 80%
28 Box Touches 22
17 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 4
21.12.2024 Barcelona Barcelona 1-2 HT 1-0 Atletico Madrid Atletico Madrid İS1
17.03.2024 Atletico Madrid Atletico Madrid 0-3 HT 0-1 Barcelona Barcelona İS1
03.12.2023 Barcelona Barcelona 1-0 HT 1-0 Atletico Madrid Atletico Madrid İS1
23.04.2023 Barcelona Barcelona 1-0 HT 1-0 Atletico Madrid Atletico Madrid İS1
08.01.2023 Atletico Madrid Atletico Madrid 0-1 HT 0-1 Barcelona Barcelona İS1
06.02.2022 Barcelona Barcelona 4-2 HT 3-1 Atletico Madrid Atletico Madrid İS1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Barcelona
4-4
AWAY Atletico Madrid
67% Ball Possession 33%
16 Total Shots 10
9 Shots on Target 7
8 Corners 3
599 Passes 250
88% Pass Accuracy 77%
POST-MATCH Barcelona vs Atletico Madrid
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Barcelona and Atletico Madrid couldn't be separated, finishing 4-4. 8 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was Barcelona at 44%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 53%.

On the day, Barcelona had 67% of the ball to Atletico Madrid's 33%, shots finished 16-10.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Barcelona had the better of it with 5 wins. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for Barcelona and 0.67 for Atletico Madrid.

What was the final score of Barcelona vs Atletico Madrid?

Barcelona 4-4 Atletico Madrid in the Spain - Copa del Rey on 25/02/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Barcelona vs Atletico Madrid?

Before kick-off our model rated a Barcelona win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Barcelona 44%, draw 27%, Atletico Madrid 29%. The final score 4-4 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Barcelona) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Barcelona) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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