Atletico Madrid 0-3 Barcelona — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - Primera Liga, 17 Mar 2024

Atletico Madrid
0-3 HT 0-1
Barcelona
📅17/03/2024 · 🕒23:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 1-1 ✗
Spain - Primera Liga – 2023/2024

Atletico Madrid vs Barcelona Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
34%
2.12
Draw
27%
3.35
Away
39%
2.94
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
2.07
Over 2.5
48%
1.68
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.6
No
51%
2.19
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
27%
4.07
2-3 Goals
39%
1.85
4-5 Goals
24%
3.08
6+ Goals
10%
9.86
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.07 — our 27% vs market 19.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
2.99
1/2
5%
30.5
1/X
7%
12.45
X/1
13%
5.08
X/2
17%
6.68
X/X
13%
5.02
2/1
7%
24.0
2/2
17%
4.4
2/X
7%
12.7
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
35%
Home Win
43%
-8.7pp
27%
Draw
26%
+0.4pp
39%
Away Win
30%
+8.3pp
52%
Under 2.5
44%
+7.5pp
48%
Over 2.5
56%
-7.5pp
49%
BTTS Yes
58%
-9.7pp
51%
BTTS No
42%
+9.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Atletico Madrid v Barcelona — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Atletico Madrid EU Bookmakers 47%
Head to Head
AWAY Barcelona EU Bookmakers 34%
+8% / +13% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +6% / -2%
1.40/1.07 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.99/0.92
+15% / +8% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +49% / -8%
50% Ball Possession 50%
13 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
341 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 328 · 77%
19.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 26.4
14.5 Crosses 12.7
2.2 Yellow Cards 2.5

Atletico Madrid vs Barcelona Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Atletico Madrid
1W-1D-4L
AWAY Barcelona
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.17 xG 1.33
39% Ball Possession 61%
11 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
312 Passes 548
80% Pass Accuracy 88%
22 Box Touches 22
14 Crosses 15
4 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
03.12.2023 Barcelona Barcelona 1-0 HT 1-0 Atletico Madrid Atletico Madrid İS1
23.04.2023 Barcelona Barcelona 1-0 HT 1-0 Atletico Madrid Atletico Madrid İS1
08.01.2023 Atletico Madrid Atletico Madrid 0-1 HT 0-1 Barcelona Barcelona İS1
06.02.2022 Barcelona Barcelona 4-2 HT 3-1 Atletico Madrid Atletico Madrid İS1
02.10.2021 Atletico Madrid Atletico Madrid 2-0 HT 2-0 Barcelona Barcelona İS1
08.05.2021 Barcelona Barcelona 0-0 HT 0-0 Atletico Madrid Atletico Madrid İS1

Atletico Madrid 0-3 Barcelona — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Atletico Madrid
0-3
AWAY Barcelona
0.78 xG 1.54
41% Ball Possession 59%
13 Total Shots 9
3 Shots on Target 5
7 Corners 3
287 Passes 466
81% Pass Accuracy 87%
28 Box Touches 28
20 Crosses 13
3 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Atletico Madrid vs Barcelona
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Barcelona ran out comfortable winners over Atletico Madrid 3-0 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

We called this one close before kick-off — 35% / 27% / 39% — and on the day Barcelona made the difference.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Atletico Madrid had 41% of the ball to Barcelona's 59%, shots finished 13-9, expected goals 0.78 to 1.54.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Barcelona led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Atletico Madrid and 1.17 for Barcelona.

What was the final score of Atletico Madrid vs Barcelona?

Atletico Madrid 0-3 Barcelona in the Spain - Primera Liga on 17/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Atletico Madrid vs Barcelona?

Before kick-off our model rated an Barcelona win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Atletico Madrid 35%, draw 27%, Barcelona 39%. The final score 0-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Barcelona), BTTS No — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Barcelona) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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