Villarreal 1-0 Valencia — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - Primera Liga, 17 Mar 2024

📅17/03/2024 · 🕒18:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
44%
2.12
Draw
28%
3.18
Away
28%
3.08
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.78
Over 2.5
45%
1.95
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.76
No
54%
1.95
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
30%
3.07
2-3 Goals
39%
1.78
4-5 Goals
21%
3.81
6+ Goals
10%
16.55
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.07 — our 30% vs market 26.9%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
3.06
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
8%
13.1
X/1
18%
4.75
X/2
12%
6.56
X/X
13%
4.38
2/1
6%
27.0
2/2
10%
4.82
2/X
7%
13.45
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
44%
Home Win
43%
+0.9pp
28%
Draw
28%
+0.1pp
28%
Away Win
29%
-1.0pp
55%
Under 2.5
52%
+2.4pp
45%
Over 2.5
48%
-2.4pp
46%
BTTS Yes
53%
-6.5pp
54%
BTTS No
47%
+6.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Villarreal EU Bookmakers 47%
Head to Head
AWAY Valencia EU Bookmakers 32%
+0% / +6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -5% / -11%
1.85/1.27 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.07/1.30
+23% / -16% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -12% / +8%
50% Ball Possession 50%
13 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
297 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 310 · 78%
24.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.2
16.0 Crosses 17.4
2.3 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Villarreal
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Valencia
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
1.41 xG 1.44
60% Ball Possession 40%
11 Total Shots 8
4 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 4
432 Passes 242
86% Pass Accuracy 75%
23 Box Touches 18
14 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 3
02.01.2024 Valencia Valencia 3-1 HT 2-0 Villarreal Villarreal İS1
03.05.2023 Valencia Valencia 1-1 HT 0-0 Villarreal Villarreal İS1
31.12.2022 Villarreal Villarreal 2-1 HT 1-1 Valencia Valencia İS1
19.04.2022 Villarreal Villarreal 2-0 HT 2-0 Valencia Valencia İS1
30.10.2021 Valencia Valencia 2-0 HT 1-0 Villarreal Villarreal İS1
16.07.2021 Valencia Valencia 3-2 HT 0-1 Villarreal Villarreal HAZ
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Villarreal
1-0
AWAY Valencia
2.04 xG 1.13
53% Ball Possession 47%
13 Total Shots 14
7 Shots on Target 7
5 Corners 2
377 Passes 313
80% Pass Accuracy 75%
33 Box Touches 23
14 Crosses 18
5 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Villarreal vs Valencia
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Villarreal edged past Valencia 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Villarreal as the likeliest winner at 44%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (55%) came in.

On the day, Villarreal had 53% of the ball to Valencia's 47%, shots finished 13-14, expected goals 2.04 to 1.13.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Valencia led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Villarreal and 1.67 for Valencia.

What was the final score of Villarreal vs Valencia?

Villarreal 1-0 Valencia in the Spain - Primera Liga on 17/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Villarreal vs Valencia?

Before kick-off our model rated a Villarreal win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Villarreal 44%, draw 28%, Valencia 28%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Villarreal), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Villarreal) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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