Valencia 3-1 Villarreal — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - Primera Liga, 2 Jan 2024

Valencia
3-1 HT 2-0
Villarreal
📅02/01/2024 · 🕒23:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 0-1 ✗
Spain - Primera Liga – 2023/2024

Valencia vs Villarreal Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
46%
2.12
Draw
25%
3.28
Away
29%
3.08
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
1.78
Over 2.5
44%
1.95
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.76
No
54%
1.95
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
30%
3.06
2-3 Goals
40%
1.77
4-5 Goals
20%
3.86
6+ Goals
10%
16.95
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.06 — our 30% vs market 27.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
3.03
1/2
6%
34.0
1/X
5%
13.15
X/1
19%
4.7
X/2
15%
6.52
X/X
14%
4.35
2/1
6%
27.0
2/2
8%
4.83
2/X
6%
13.45
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
46%
Home Win
44%
+2.0pp
25%
Draw
27%
-1.9pp
29%
Away Win
29%
-0.1pp
56%
Under 2.5
52%
+3.5pp
44%
Over 2.5
48%
-3.5pp
46%
BTTS Yes
53%
-6.7pp
54%
BTTS No
47%
+6.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Valencia v Villarreal — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Valencia EU Bookmakers 47%
Head to Head
AWAY Villarreal EU Bookmakers 32%
+8% / +1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / +6%
1.36/0.91 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.37/1.35
+8% / +25% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +7% / +30%
49% Ball Possession 51%
12 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
291 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 315 · 78%
21.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.7
21.3 Crosses 13.6
2.1 Yellow Cards 2.3

Valencia vs Villarreal Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Valencia
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Villarreal
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.26 xG 1.70
41% Ball Possession 59%
11 Total Shots 11
3 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
250 Passes 414
75% Pass Accuracy 85%
19 Box Touches 24
20 Crosses 14
3 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
03.05.2023 Valencia Valencia 1-1 HT 0-0 Villarreal Villarreal İS1
31.12.2022 Villarreal Villarreal 2-1 HT 1-1 Valencia Valencia İS1
19.04.2022 Villarreal Villarreal 2-0 HT 2-0 Valencia Valencia İS1
30.10.2021 Valencia Valencia 2-0 HT 1-0 Villarreal Villarreal İS1
16.07.2021 Valencia Valencia 3-2 HT 0-1 Villarreal Villarreal HAZ
05.03.2021 Valencia Valencia 2-1 HT 0-1 Villarreal Villarreal İS1

Valencia 3-1 Villarreal — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Valencia
3-1
AWAY Villarreal
2.80 xG 0.53
45% Ball Possession 55%
11 Total Shots 8
8 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 3
342 Passes 428
83% Pass Accuracy 85%
25 Box Touches 18
14 Crosses 14
2 Yellow Cards 5
POST-MATCH Valencia vs Villarreal
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Valencia beat Villarreal 3-1. Half-time: 2-0.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Valencia as the likeliest winner at 46%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Valencia had 45% of the ball to Villarreal's 55%, shots finished 11-8, expected goals 2.80 to 0.53.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Valencia had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Valencia and 1.33 for Villarreal.

What was the final score of Valencia vs Villarreal?

Valencia 3-1 Villarreal in the Spain - Primera Liga on 02/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Valencia vs Villarreal?

Before kick-off our model rated a Valencia win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Valencia 46%, draw 25%, Villarreal 29%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Valencia) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Valencia) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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