Las Palmas 0-1 Almeria — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - Primera Liga, 17 Mar 2024

Las Palmas
0-1 HT 0-1
Almeria
📅17/03/2024 · 🕒18:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-0 ✗
Spain - Primera Liga – 2023/2024

Las Palmas vs Almeria Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
47%
1.75
Draw
28%
3.64
Away
25%
3.83
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
2.0
Over 2.5
46%
1.74
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.7
No
51%
2.03
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
30%
3.8
2-3 Goals
40%
1.83
4-5 Goals
21%
3.22
6+ Goals
9%
11.05
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.8 — our 30% vs market 21.2%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
25%
2.27
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
10%
14.2
X/1
14%
4.14
X/2
8%
8.88
X/X
13%
5.3
2/1
8%
22.3
2/2
11%
6.54
2/X
5%
14.75
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
47%
Home Win
53%
-5.9pp
28%
Draw
24%
+3.5pp
25%
Away Win
23%
+2.5pp
54%
Under 2.5
46%
+7.4pp
46%
Over 2.5
54%
-7.4pp
49%
BTTS Yes
55%
-5.6pp
51%
BTTS No
45%
+5.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Las Palmas v Almeria — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Las Palmas EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Almeria EU Bookmakers 26%
+1% / +1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -10% / -14%
0.66/0.87 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.18/1.54
-30% / +46% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +10% / -33%
54% Ball Possession 46%
12 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 5
351 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 279 · 74%
10.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.4
17.0 Crosses 20.0
2.8 Yellow Cards 3.1

Las Palmas vs Almeria Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Las Palmas
2W-3D-1L
AWAY Almeria
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
0.89 xG 1.14
57% Ball Possession 43%
10 Total Shots 10
3 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
370 Passes 284
80% Pass Accuracy 77%
16 Box Touches 20
16 Crosses 14
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
28.10.2023 Almeria Almeria 1-2 HT 0-1 Las Palmas Las Palmas İS1
23.07.2023 Almeria Almeria 0-0 Las Palmas Las Palmas HAZ
09.01.2022 Las Palmas Las Palmas 1-1 HT 1-0 Almeria Almeria İS2
09.10.2021 Almeria Almeria 1-1 HT 1-0 Las Palmas Las Palmas İS2
14.02.2021 Almeria Almeria 3-1 HT 1-0 Las Palmas Las Palmas İS2
17.10.2020 Las Palmas Las Palmas 2-0 HT 1-0 Almeria Almeria İS2

Las Palmas 0-1 Almeria — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Las Palmas
0-1
AWAY Almeria
0.94 xG 0.77
66% Ball Possession 34%
21 Total Shots 3
6 Shots on Target 2
11 Corners 3
517 Passes 235
86% Pass Accuracy 73%
25 Box Touches 15
33 Crosses 10
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Las Palmas vs Almeria
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Almeria nicked a narrow win over Las Palmas 1-0 away from home.

Our pre-match lean was Las Palmas at 47%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Las Palmas had 66% of the ball to Almeria's 34%, shots finished 21-3, expected goals 0.94 to 0.77.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Las Palmas had the better of it with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Las Palmas and 1.00 for Almeria.

What was the final score of Las Palmas vs Almeria?

Las Palmas 0-1 Almeria in the Spain - Primera Liga on 17/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Las Palmas vs Almeria?

Before kick-off our model rated a Las Palmas win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split Las Palmas 47%, draw 28%, Almeria 25%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Las Palmas) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Las Palmas) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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