Sevilla 1-2 Celta Vigo — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - Primera Liga, 17 Mar 2024

Sevilla
1-2 HT 1-0
Celta Vigo
📅17/03/2024 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 0-0 ✗
Spain - Primera Liga – 2023/2024

Sevilla vs Celta Vigo Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
47%
1.92
Draw
27%
3.35
Away
26%
3.44
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.9
Over 2.5
47%
1.82
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.75
No
53%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
27%
3.34
2-3 Goals
43%
1.78
4-5 Goals
21%
3.54
6+ Goals
9%
14.0
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.34 — our 27% vs market 24.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
2.64
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
8%
13.4
X/1 EV+ ✗
23%
4.42
X/2
9%
7.56
X/X
11%
4.7
2/1
6%
24.85
2/2
11%
5.62
2/X
8%
13.9
Value flag · X/1 at 4.42 — our 23% vs market 17.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
47%
Home Win
48%
-1.0pp
27%
Draw
26%
+0.3pp
26%
Away Win
26%
+0.7pp
53%
Under 2.5
49%
+4.5pp
47%
Over 2.5
51%
-4.5pp
47%
BTTS Yes
53%
-5.6pp
53%
BTTS No
47%
+5.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Sevilla v Celta Vigo — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Sevilla EU Bookmakers 52%
Head to Head
AWAY Celta Vigo EU Bookmakers 29%
+0% / -25% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -5% / -7%
1.50/1.07 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.94/1.39
-15% / -20% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +1% / +12%
51% Ball Possession 49%
14 Total Shots 8
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
317 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 307 · 77%
26.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.2
31.0 Crosses 15.7
2.6 Yellow Cards 2.3

Sevilla vs Celta Vigo Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Sevilla
2W-4D-0L
AWAY Celta Vigo
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
0.95 xG 1.54
54% Ball Possession 46%
11 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
400 Passes 329
82% Pass Accuracy 79%
17 Box Touches 16
25 Crosses 18
3 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
04.11.2023 Celta Vigo Celta Vigo 1-1 HT 1-0 Sevilla Sevilla İS1
07.04.2023 Sevilla Sevilla 2-2 HT 1-0 Celta Vigo Celta Vigo İS1
30.12.2022 Celta Vigo Celta Vigo 1-1 HT 1-0 Sevilla Sevilla İS1
22.01.2022 Sevilla Sevilla 2-2 HT 0-2 Celta Vigo Celta Vigo İS1
17.10.2021 Celta Vigo Celta Vigo 0-1 HT 0-0 Sevilla Sevilla İS1
12.04.2021 Celta Vigo Celta Vigo 3-4 HT 3-2 Sevilla Sevilla İS1

Sevilla 1-2 Celta Vigo — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Sevilla
1-2
AWAY Celta Vigo
1.71 xG 1.56
35% Ball Possession 65%
11 Total Shots 18
4 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 8
286 Passes 584
80% Pass Accuracy 90%
24 Box Touches 27
10 Crosses 17
4 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Sevilla vs Celta Vigo
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Celta Vigo nicked a narrow win over Sevilla 2-1 away from home. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match lean was Sevilla at 47%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 47%.

On the day, Sevilla had 35% of the ball to Celta Vigo's 65%, shots finished 11-18, expected goals 1.71 to 1.56.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Sevilla had the better of it with 2 wins, 4 drawn. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for Sevilla and 1.50 for Celta Vigo.

What was the final score of Sevilla vs Celta Vigo?

Sevilla 1-2 Celta Vigo in the Spain - Primera Liga on 17/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Sevilla vs Celta Vigo?

Before kick-off our model rated a Sevilla win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split Sevilla 47%, draw 27%, Celta Vigo 26%. The final score 1-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Sevilla) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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