Cimarrones de Sonora 0-1 Celaya — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Mexico - Primera A, 25 Mar 2024

📅25/03/2024 · 🕒04:05 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
29%
2.84
Draw
24%
3.28
Away
47%
2.23
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.75
Over 2.5
46%
1.97
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.81
No
49%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
28%
2-3 Goals
40%
4-5 Goals
22%
6+ Goals
10%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
10%
1/2
7%
1/X
6%
X/1
12%
X/2
15%
X/X
9%
2/1
8%
2/2
24%
2/X
9%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
29%
Home Win
32%
-2.2pp
24%
Draw
27%
-3.2pp
47%
Away Win
41%
+5.6pp
54%
Under 2.5
53%
+1.2pp
46%
Over 2.5
47%
-1.2pp
51%
BTTS Yes
51%
-0.1pp
49%
BTTS No
49%
+0.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Cimarrones de Sonora EU Bookmakers 35%
Head to Head
AWAY Celaya EU Bookmakers 45%
+16% / +19% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +10% / +23%
1.40/1.01 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.34/0.90
+17% / +10% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +5% / +34%
52% Ball Possession 48%
10 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
298 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 372 · 80%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
4.0 Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Cimarrones de Sonora
1W-3D-2L
AWAY Celaya
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
06.09.2023 Celaya Celaya 1-1 HT 0-1 Cimarrones de Sonora Cimarrones de Sonora MEK2
22.03.2023 Cimarrones de Sonora Cimarrones de Sonora 1-1 HT 0-0 Celaya Celaya MEK2
06.11.2022 Celaya Celaya 3-1 HT 1-0 Cimarrones de Sonora Cimarrones de Sonora MEK2
03.11.2022 Cimarrones de Sonora Cimarrones de Sonora 0-0 HT 0-0 Celaya Celaya MEK2
25.08.2022 Celaya Celaya 3-1 HT 2-0 Cimarrones de Sonora Cimarrones de Sonora MEK2
17.03.2022 Cimarrones de Sonora Cimarrones de Sonora 3-2 HT 2-1 Celaya Celaya MEK2
POST-MATCH Cimarrones de Sonora vs Celaya
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Celaya squeezed past Cimarrones de Sonora 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Celaya as the likeliest winner at 47%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Celaya led the recent series with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Cimarrones de Sonora and 1.67 for Celaya.

What was the final score of Cimarrones de Sonora vs Celaya?

Cimarrones de Sonora 0-1 Celaya in the Mexico - Primera A on 25/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Cimarrones de Sonora vs Celaya?

Before kick-off our model rated an Celaya win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split Cimarrones de Sonora 29%, draw 24%, Celaya 47%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Celaya), Under 2.5 — while BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Celaya) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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