Katar U23 2-4 Japonya U23 — Result, Statistics & Match Review — AFC U23 Championship, 25 Apr 2024

📅25/04/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 0-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
25%
4.65
Draw
23%
3.45
Away
52%
1.69
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
57%
1.67
Over 2.5
43%
2.1
Both Teams to Score
Yes
43%
2.09
No
57%
1.66
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
38%
2.68
2-3 Goals
31%
1.77
4-5 Goals
24%
4.38
6+ Goals
7%
22.3
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.68 — our 38% vs market 31.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
8%
1/2
4%
1/X
6%
X/1
12%
X/2
20%
X/X
9%
2/1
5%
2/2
27%
2/X
9%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
25%
Home Win
19%
+6.4pp
23%
Draw
26%
-2.8pp
52%
Away Win
55%
-3.5pp
57%
Under 2.5
56%
+1.0pp
43%
Over 2.5
44%
-1.0pp
43%
BTTS Yes
44%
-1.1pp
57%
BTTS No
56%
+1.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Katar U23 EU Bookmakers 22%
Head to Head
AWAY Japonya U23 EU Bookmakers 59%
-42% / -42% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +22% / +22%
0.46/2.23 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.71/0.98
-100% / -74% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -9% / -40%
38% Ball Possession 62%
10 Total Shots 13
3 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 5
249 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 419 · 82%
15.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 13.0
5.0 Crosses 14.0
1.0 Yellow Cards 1.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Katar U23
0W-1D-1L
AWAY Japonya U23
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
0.91 xG 1.21
42% Ball Possession 58%
10 Total Shots 10
2 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 2
332 Passes 502
80% Pass Accuracy 85%
14 Box Touches 20
14 Crosses 12
2 Yellow Cards 1
20.09.2023 Japonya U23 Japonya U23 3-1 HT 2-0 Katar U23 Katar U23 AFCAG
15.01.2020 Katar U23 Katar U23 1-1 HT 0-0 Japonya U23 Japonya U23 AFCU23
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Katar U23
2-4
AWAY Japonya U23
0.36 xG 2.84
27% Ball Possession 73%
11 Total Shots 22
2 Shots on Target 7
3 Corners 9
150 Passes 582
59% Pass Accuracy 87%
11 Box Touches 56
12 Crosses 54
3 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Katar U23 vs Japonya U23
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Japonya U23 beat Katar U23 4-2 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Japonya U23 as the likeliest winner at 52%, and the 4-2 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (57%), no to both teams scoring (57%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Katar U23 had 27% of the ball to Japonya U23's 73%, shots finished 11-22, expected goals 0.36 to 2.84.

For context: across their last 2 meetings in our records, Japonya U23 led the recent series with 1 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Katar U23 and 2.00 for Japonya U23.

What was the final score of Katar U23 vs Japonya U23?

Katar U23 2-4 Japonya U23 in the AFC U23 Championship on 25/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Katar U23 vs Japonya U23?

Before kick-off our model rated an Japonya U23 win the most likely single outcome at about 52%, with the full match-result split Katar U23 25%, draw 23%, Japonya U23 52%. The final score 2-4 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Japonya U23) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Japonya U23) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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