FC Fredericia 2-1 Aalborg — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Denmark 1st Division, 25 Apr 2024

📅25/04/2024 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
34%
2.99
Draw
24%
3.64
Away
42%
1.98
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
2.33
Over 2.5
53%
1.54
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.5
No
47%
2.4
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
4.83
2-3 Goals
37%
1.93
4-5 Goals
25%
2.8
6+ Goals
13%
7.63
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
4.73
1/2
7%
21.85
1/X
9%
13.1
X/1
8%
7.34
X/2
17%
4.84
X/X
8%
5.65
2/1
7%
31.0
2/2
19%
2.65
2/X
7%
12.85
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Away Win ★★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
34%
Home Win
30%
+3.9pp
24%
Draw
24%
+0.4pp
42%
Away Win
46%
-4.2pp
47%
Under 2.5
39%
+7.6pp
53%
Over 2.5
61%
-7.6pp
53%
BTTS Yes
62%
-9.8pp
47%
BTTS No
38%
+9.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME FC Fredericia EU Bookmakers 33%
Head to Head
AWAY Aalborg EU Bookmakers 50%
-5% / -8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +12% / +12%
1.24/1.60 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.61/1.24
+22% / -9% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +27% / +0%
45% Ball Possession 55%
12 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 6
302 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 394 · 80%
24.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 25.3
13.8 Crosses 17.0
1.2 Yellow Cards 2.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME FC Fredericia
2W-0D-2L
AWAY Aalborg
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.50
0.91 xG 2.05
50% Ball Possession 50%
13 Total Shots 16
6 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 5
388 Passes 422
82% Pass Accuracy 85%
22 Box Touches 34
18 Crosses 26
2 Yellow Cards 2
01.03.2024 FC Fredericia FC Fredericia 2-3 HT 1-2 Aalborg Aalborg DAN1
26.09.2023 Aalborg Aalborg 2-3 HT 0-1 FC Fredericia FC Fredericia DAK
06.08.2023 Aalborg Aalborg 4-0 HT 1-0 FC Fredericia FC Fredericia DAN1
11.04.2018 FC Fredericia FC Fredericia 3-1 HT 3-0 Aalborg Aalborg DAK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME FC Fredericia
2-1
AWAY Aalborg
0.94 xG 2.17
53% Ball Possession 47%
17 Total Shots 26
10 Shots on Target 9
7 Corners 9
446 Passes 364
84% Pass Accuracy 84%
28 Box Touches 43
13 Crosses 39
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH FC Fredericia vs Aalborg
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

FC Fredericia squeezed past Aalborg 2-1. Half-time: 2-0.

Our pre-match lean was Aalborg at 42%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 53% and both teams to score was close to even at 53%.

On the day, FC Fredericia had 53% of the ball to Aalborg's 47%, shots finished 17-26, expected goals 0.94 to 2.17 — the balance of chances actually favoured Aalborg.

Coming into the game, across their last 4 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for FC Fredericia and 2.50 for Aalborg.

What was the final score of FC Fredericia vs Aalborg?

FC Fredericia 2-1 Aalborg in the Denmark 1st Division on 25/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for FC Fredericia vs Aalborg?

Before kick-off our model rated an Aalborg win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split FC Fredericia 34%, draw 24%, Aalborg 42%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Aalborg) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Aalborg) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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