Municipal Liberia 3-3 San Carlos — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Costa Rica - Premier League, 25 Apr 2024

📅25/04/2024 · 🕒05:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
36%
2.38
Draw
26%
3.28
Away
38%
2.62
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
2.15
Over 2.5
46%
1.64
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.53
No
54%
2.33
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
29%
2-3 Goals
44%
4-5 Goals
19%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
1/2
7%
1/X
5%
X/1
9%
X/2
14%
X/X
15%
2/1
8%
2/2
18%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
36%
Home Win
38%
-2.3pp
26%
Draw
27%
-1.4pp
38%
Away Win
35%
+3.7pp
54%
Under 2.5
43%
+10.9pp
46%
Over 2.5
57%
-10.9pp
46%
BTTS Yes
61%
-14.8pp
54%
BTTS No
39%
+14.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Municipal Liberia EU Bookmakers 42%
Head to Head
AWAY San Carlos EU Bookmakers 38%
+9% / +9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / +5%
1.45/0.73 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.22/1.06
+1% / +55% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -6% / +21%
49% Ball Possession 51%
10 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
348 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 316 · 77%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Municipal Liberia
0W-0D-3L
AWAY San Carlos
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
48% Ball Possession 52%
5 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 8
6 Corners 7
1 Yellow Cards 2
14.01.2024 San Carlos San Carlos 3-2 HT 1-1 Municipal Liberia Municipal Liberia KOSTA
27.11.2023 Municipal Liberia Municipal Liberia 0-1 HT 0-0 San Carlos San Carlos KOSTA
21.09.2023 San Carlos San Carlos 2-1 HT 0-0 Municipal Liberia Municipal Liberia KOSTA
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Municipal Liberia
3-3
AWAY San Carlos
45% Ball Possession 55%
11 Total Shots 15
7 Shots on Target 8
2 Corners 8
5 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Municipal Liberia vs San Carlos
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Municipal Liberia and San Carlos shared the points in a 3-3 draw. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match split (36% / 26% / 38%) said coin-flip, and the draw proved it right.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 46%.

On the day, Municipal Liberia had 45% of the ball to San Carlos's 55%, shots finished 11-15.

For context: across their last 3 meetings in our records, San Carlos led the recent series with 3 wins. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Municipal Liberia and 2.00 for San Carlos.

What was the final score of Municipal Liberia vs San Carlos?

Municipal Liberia 3-3 San Carlos in the Costa Rica - Premier League on 25/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Municipal Liberia vs San Carlos?

Before kick-off our model rated an San Carlos win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Municipal Liberia 36%, draw 26%, San Carlos 38%. The final score 3-3 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (San Carlos) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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