San Carlos 3-2 Municipal Liberia — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Costa Rica - Premier League, 14 Jan 2024

📅14/01/2024 · 🕒04:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
1.57
Draw
32%
3.94
Away
25%
4.75
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
2.1
Over 2.5
47%
1.67
Both Teams to Score
Yes
56%
1.76
No
44%
1.95
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
27%
2-3 Goals
40%
4-5 Goals
24%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
1/2
7%
1/X
6%
X/1
19%
X/2
7%
X/X
14%
2/1
6%
2/2
11%
2/X
12%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
43%
Home Win
60%
-16.8pp
32%
Draw
22%
+9.7pp
25%
Away Win
18%
+7.0pp
53%
Under 2.5
44%
+9.1pp
47%
Over 2.5
56%
-9.1pp
56%
BTTS Yes
53%
+3.5pp
44%
BTTS No
47%
-3.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME San Carlos EU Bookmakers 64%
Head to Head
AWAY Municipal Liberia EU Bookmakers 21%
+7% / +7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -9% / -9%
1.76/0.75 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.99/2.61
-15% / +6% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +98% / -38%
54% Ball Possession 46%
12 Total Shots 7
4 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 4
375 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 369 · 78%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards 4.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME San Carlos
2W-0D-0L
AWAY Municipal Liberia
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
52% Ball Possession 48%
18 Total Shots 6
8 Shots on Target 3
8 Corners 6
2 Yellow Cards 1
27.11.2023 Municipal Liberia Municipal Liberia 0-1 HT 0-0 San Carlos San Carlos KOSTA
21.09.2023 San Carlos San Carlos 2-1 HT 0-0 Municipal Liberia Municipal Liberia KOSTA
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME San Carlos
3-2
AWAY Municipal Liberia
51% Ball Possession 49%
8 Total Shots 3
5 Corners 6
POST-MATCH San Carlos vs Municipal Liberia
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

San Carlos edged past Municipal Liberia 3-2. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had San Carlos as the likeliest winner at 43%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead. We had also flagged both teams to score (56%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, San Carlos had 51% of the ball to Municipal Liberia's 49%, shots finished 8-3.

Coming into the game, across their last 2 meetings in our records, San Carlos had the better of it with 2 wins. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for San Carlos and 0.50 for Municipal Liberia.

What was the final score of San Carlos vs Municipal Liberia?

San Carlos 3-2 Municipal Liberia in the Costa Rica - Premier League on 14/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for San Carlos vs Municipal Liberia?

Before kick-off our model rated a San Carlos win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split San Carlos 43%, draw 32%, Municipal Liberia 25%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (San Carlos), BTTS Yes — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (San Carlos) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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