Mathare United 1-2 Nairobi United — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Kenya - Premier League, 25 Apr 2026

📅25/04/2026 · 🕒14:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
34%
2.8
Draw
28%
2.83
Away
38%
2.54
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
64%
Over 2.5
36%
Both Teams to Score
Yes
42%
2.03
No
58%
1.7
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
41%
2-3 Goals
37%
4-5 Goals
16%
6+ Goals
6%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
1/2
6%
1/X
5%
X/1
12%
X/2
13%
X/X
16%
2/1
6%
2/2
19%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
34%
Home Win
32%
+1.6pp
28%
Draw
32%
-4.3pp
38%
Away Win
36%
+2.7pp
42%
BTTS Yes
45%
-3.5pp
58%
BTTS No
55%
+3.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Mathare United EU Bookmakers 36%
Head to Head
AWAY Nairobi United EU Bookmakers 39%
+3% / +6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -36% / -36%
1.14/1.07 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.00/0.96
+24% / -4% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -100% / -9%
49% Ball Possession 51%
12 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
268 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 368 · 79%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.4 Yellow Cards 1.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Mathare United
1W-0D-0L
AWAY Nairobi United
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.00
46% Ball Possession 54%
16 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 3
3 Corners 10
1 Yellow Cards 0
04.12.2025 Nairobi United Nairobi United 0-1 HT 0-0 Mathare United Mathare United KEN
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Mathare United
1-2
AWAY Nairobi United
63% Ball Possession 37%
6 Total Shots 4
4 Shots on Target 2
5 Corners 4
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Mathare United vs Nairobi United
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Nairobi United squeezed past Mathare United 2-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-2.

Our pre-match split (34% / 28% / 38%) promised a tight game; Nairobi United found the edge the numbers couldn't. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (64%), no to both teams scoring (58%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Mathare United had 63% of the ball to Nairobi United's 37%, shots finished 6-4.

What was the final score of Mathare United vs Nairobi United?

Mathare United 1-2 Nairobi United in the Kenya - Premier League on 25/04/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Mathare United vs Nairobi United?

Before kick-off our model rated an Nairobi United win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Mathare United 34%, draw 28%, Nairobi United 38%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Nairobi United) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Nairobi United) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
KEN More Kenya - Premier League
25 Apr 2026
14:00 Shabana vs Police Analysis →
14:00 Bandari vs Ulinzi Stars Analysis →
15:00 Kariobangi Sharks vs Muranga All Stars Analysis →