Spartak Kostroma 1-1 Arsenal Tula — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Russia - FNL, 25 Apr 2026

📅25/04/2026 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
41%
2.09
Draw
31%
3.18
Away
28%
3.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
1.59
Over 2.5
44%
2.23
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.99
No
49%
1.73
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
32%
2-3 Goals
40%
4-5 Goals
20%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
1/2
5%
1/X
8%
X/1
13%
X/2
11%
X/X
16%
2/1
8%
2/2
12%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
41%
Home Win
44%
-2.8pp
31%
Draw
28%
+3.2pp
28%
Away Win
28%
-0.3pp
56%
Under 2.5
59%
-3.0pp
44%
Over 2.5
41%
+3.0pp
51%
BTTS Yes
46%
+5.0pp
49%
BTTS No
54%
-5.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Spartak Kostroma EU Bookmakers 48%
Head to Head
AWAY Arsenal Tula EU Bookmakers 32%
+9% / +9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / -2%
1.56/1.00 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.06/1.14
+20% / -11% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +6% / +0%
52% Ball Possession 48%
11 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
290 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 288 · 71%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 6.0
Crosses 6.0
3.1 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Spartak Kostroma
1W-0D-0L
AWAY Arsenal Tula
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
35% Ball Possession 65%
8 Total Shots 8
3 Shots on Target 3
0 Corners 2
2 Yellow Cards 1
13.09.2025 Arsenal Tula Arsenal Tula 1-2 HT 0-0 Spartak Kostroma Spartak Kostroma RUS1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Spartak Kostroma
1-1
AWAY Arsenal Tula
45% Ball Possession 55%
9 Total Shots 7
3 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 2
1 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Spartak Kostroma vs Arsenal Tula
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Spartak Kostroma and Arsenal Tula couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. Half-time: 0-0.

Our pre-match lean was Spartak Kostroma at 41%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (56%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Spartak Kostroma had 45% of the ball to Arsenal Tula's 55%, shots finished 9-7.

What was the final score of Spartak Kostroma vs Arsenal Tula?

Spartak Kostroma 1-1 Arsenal Tula in the Russia - FNL on 25/04/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Spartak Kostroma vs Arsenal Tula?

Before kick-off our model rated a Spartak Kostroma win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Spartak Kostroma 41%, draw 31%, Arsenal Tula 28%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Spartak Kostroma) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Spartak Kostroma) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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