Etoile Du Sahel 1-0 AS Marsa — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Tunisia - 1st Division, 25 Apr 2026

📅25/04/2026 · 🕒17:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
60%
1.57
Draw
29%
3.54
Away
11%
5.27
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
65%
1.59
Over 2.5
35%
2.23
Both Teams to Score
Yes
40%
2.29
No
60%
1.55
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
41%
2.32
2-3 Goals
37%
1.71
4-5 Goals
15%
4.57
6+ Goals
7%
26.0
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.32 — our 41% vs market 34.7%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
27%
1/2
3%
1/X
7%
X/1
27%
X/2
3%
X/X
15%
2/1
7%
2/2
4%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
60%
Home Win
59%
+1.0pp
29%
Draw
25%
+4.3pp
10%
Away Win
16%
-5.3pp
65%
Under 2.5
59%
+6.4pp
35%
Over 2.5
41%
-6.4pp
40%
BTTS Yes
40%
+0.6pp
60%
BTTS No
60%
-0.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Etoile Du Sahel EU Bookmakers 64%
Head to Head
AWAY AS Marsa EU Bookmakers 19%
-7% / -18% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -9% / -9%
1.63/0.68 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.47/1.01
+15% / -32% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -19% / +21%
61% Ball Possession 39%
15 Total Shots 8
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 2
330 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 240 · 74%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.7 Yellow Cards 1.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Etoile Du Sahel
1W-0D-0L
AWAY AS Marsa
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.00
29.10.2025 AS Marsa AS Marsa 0-2 HT 0-0 Etoile Du Sahel Etoile Du Sahel TUN1
POST-MATCH Etoile Du Sahel vs AS Marsa
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Etoile Du Sahel edged past AS Marsa 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we said in the preview, our model had Etoile Du Sahel as the likeliest winner at 60%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (65%), no to both teams scoring (60%), and both reads landed as well.

What was the final score of Etoile Du Sahel vs AS Marsa?

Etoile Du Sahel 1-0 AS Marsa in the Tunisia - 1st Division on 25/04/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Etoile Du Sahel vs AS Marsa?

Before kick-off our model rated a Etoile Du Sahel win the most likely single outcome at about 60%, with the full match-result split Etoile Du Sahel 60%, draw 29%, AS Marsa 10%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Etoile Du Sahel), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Etoile Du Sahel) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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