Gabes 1-1 ES Metlaoui — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Tunisia - 1st Division, 25 Apr 2026

📅25/04/2026 · 🕒17:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
40%
2.05
Draw
37%
2.88
Away
23%
3.63
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
76%
1.48
Over 2.5
24%
2.51
Both Teams to Score
Yes
33%
2.09
No
67%
1.66
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
52%
2.14
2-3 Goals
30%
1.73
4-5 Goals
12%
5.1
6+ Goals
6%
32.5
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.14 — our 52% vs market 38.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
1/2
5%
1/X
7%
X/1
19%
X/2
7%
X/X
24%
2/1
5%
2/2
12%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Under 2.5 ★★ Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
40%
Home Win
45%
-5.2pp
37%
Draw
31%
+5.9pp
23%
Away Win
24%
-0.8pp
76%
Under 2.5
64%
+12.1pp
24%
Over 2.5
36%
-12.2pp
33%
BTTS Yes
44%
-11.2pp
67%
BTTS No
56%
+11.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Gabes EU Bookmakers 49%
Head to Head
AWAY ES Metlaoui EU Bookmakers 28%
-1% / -1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / +0%
0.80/0.76 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.54/0.60
-31% / -23% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -43% / +44%
51% Ball Possession 49%
14 Total Shots 11
7 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 4
328 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 227 · 70%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
4.0 Yellow Cards 3.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Gabes
1W-0D-2L
AWAY ES Metlaoui
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
25.10.2025 ES Metlaoui ES Metlaoui 1-0 HT 0-0 Gabes Gabes TUN1
26.02.2025 ES Metlaoui ES Metlaoui 2-1 HT 0-1 Gabes Gabes TUN1
02.11.2024 Gabes Gabes 1-0 HT 0-0 ES Metlaoui ES Metlaoui TUN1
POST-MATCH Gabes vs ES Metlaoui
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Gabes and ES Metlaoui couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match split (40% / 37% / 23%) said coin-flip, and the draw proved it right. On goals, under 2.5 goals (76%) landed while no to both teams scoring (67%) missed.

For context: across their last 3 meetings in our records, ES Metlaoui led the recent series with 2 wins. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Gabes and 1.00 for ES Metlaoui.

What was the final score of Gabes vs ES Metlaoui?

Gabes 1-1 ES Metlaoui in the Tunisia - 1st Division on 25/04/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Gabes vs ES Metlaoui?

Before kick-off our model rated a Gabes win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Gabes 40%, draw 37%, ES Metlaoui 23%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Gabes), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Gabes) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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