Milan 3-3 Salernitana — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie A, 25 May 2024

📅25/05/2024 · 🕒21:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-0 2nd Score 4-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
69%
1.16
Draw
18%
7.78
Away
13%
10.87
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
40%
3.94
Over 2.5
60%
1.22
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.88
No
54%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
19%
10.1
2-3 Goals
38%
2.56
4-5 Goals
28%
2.32
6+ Goals
15%
3.42
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
41%
1/2
4%
1/X
6%
X/1
18%
X/2
4%
X/X
6%
2/1
10%
2/2
4%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
69%
Home Win
82%
-13.1pp
18%
Draw
10%
+7.1pp
13%
Away Win
7%
+6.0pp
40%
Under 2.5
22%
+17.9pp
60%
Over 2.5
78%
-17.8pp
46%
BTTS Yes
49%
-2.7pp
54%
BTTS No
51%
+2.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Milan EU Bookmakers 87%
Head to Head
AWAY Salernitana EU Bookmakers 9%
-6% / -19% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +9% / +6%
1.80/0.80 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.73/2.09
-15% / -20% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +11% / -11%
61% Ball Possession 39%
18 Total Shots 9
7 Shots on Target 3
8 Corners 4
488 · 86% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 288 · 78%
31.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 11.2
23.4 Crosses 10.6
1.7 Yellow Cards 2.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Milan
2W-3D-0L
AWAY Salernitana
1.80 Avg Goals (FT) 1.20
2.14 xG 0.85
63% Ball Possession 37%
19 Total Shots 10
7 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
458 Passes 229
85% Pass Accuracy 75%
34 Box Touches 13
23 Crosses 13
2 Yellow Cards 3
22.12.2023 Salernitana Salernitana 2-2 HT 1-1 Milan Milan İTA
13.03.2023 Milan Milan 1-1 HT 1-0 Salernitana Salernitana İTA
04.01.2023 Salernitana Salernitana 1-2 HT 0-2 Milan Milan İTA
19.02.2022 Salernitana Salernitana 2-2 HT 1-1 Milan Milan İTA
04.12.2021 Milan Milan 2-0 HT 2-0 Salernitana Salernitana İTA
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Milan
3-3
AWAY Salernitana
2.99 xG 1.66
66% Ball Possession 34%
23 Total Shots 14
11 Shots on Target 6
13 Corners 3
467 Passes 217
87% Pass Accuracy 79%
61 Box Touches 14
27 Crosses 7
0 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Milan vs Salernitana
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Milan and Salernitana shared the points in a 3-3 draw. It was 2-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

By our pre-match numbers this was an upset: we had Milan at 69% and the game still went the other way. Single results are noisy — probabilities earn their keep across thousands of matches, not one. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (60%) came in.

On the day, Milan had 66% of the ball to Salernitana's 34%, shots finished 23-14, expected goals 2.99 to 1.66.

Coming into the game, across their last 5 meetings in our records, Milan had the better of it with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.80 goals for Milan and 1.20 for Salernitana.

What was the final score of Milan vs Salernitana?

Milan 3-3 Salernitana in the Italy - Serie A on 25/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Milan vs Salernitana?

Before kick-off our model rated a Milan win the most likely single outcome at about 69%, with the full match-result split Milan 69%, draw 18%, Salernitana 13%. The final score 3-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5 — while Match Result (Milan), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Milan) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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İTA More Italy - Serie A
25 May 2024
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