Milan vs Salernitana Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Milan v Salernitana — Team-Based Signals
Milan vs Salernitana Head-to-Head — Last 5 Meetings
2-2
HT 1-1
Milan
İTA
1-1
HT 1-0
Salernitana
İTA
1-2
HT 0-2
Milan
İTA
2-2
HT 1-1
Milan
İTA
2-0
HT 2-0
Salernitana
İTA
Milan 3-3 Salernitana — Actual Match Statistics
Milan and Salernitana shared the points in a 3-3 draw. It was 2-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.
By our pre-match numbers this was an upset: we had Milan at 69% and the game still went the other way. Single results are noisy — probabilities earn their keep across thousands of matches, not one. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (60%) came in.
On the day, Milan had 66% of the ball to Salernitana's 34%, shots finished 23-14, expected goals 2.99 to 1.66.
Coming into the game, across their last 5 meetings in our records, Milan had the better of it with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.80 goals for Milan and 1.20 for Salernitana.
What was the final score of Milan vs Salernitana?
Milan 3-3 Salernitana in the Italy - Serie A on 25/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Milan vs Salernitana?
Before kick-off our model rated a Milan win the most likely single outcome at about 69%, with the full match-result split Milan 69%, draw 18%, Salernitana 13%. The final score 3-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5 — while Match Result (Milan), BTTS No went the other way.