Manchester City 1-2 Manchester United — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - FA Cup, 25 May 2024

Manchester City
1-2 HT 0-2
Manchester United
📅25/05/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-1 ✗ 2nd Score 2-1 ✗
England - FA Cup – 2023/2024

Manchester City vs Manchester United Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
54%
1.32
Draw
25%
4.95
Away
21%
7.18
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
2.51
Over 2.5
52%
1.48
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.81
No
50%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
22%
5.53
2-3 Goals
41%
2.02
4-5 Goals
27%
2.65
6+ Goals
10%
6.35
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
28%
1.5
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
8%
21.45
X/1
20%
3.58
X/2
5%
19.0
X/X
11%
8.29
2/1
6%
21.05
2/2
9%
13.9
2/X
7%
21.45
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
54%
Home Win
72%
-17.4pp
25%
Draw
17%
+8.0pp
21%
Away Win
11%
+9.4pp
48%
Under 2.5
36%
+11.5pp
52%
Over 2.5
64%
-11.5pp
50%
BTTS Yes
51%
-0.9pp
50%
BTTS No
49%
+0.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Manchester City v Manchester United — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Manchester City EU Bookmakers 76%
Head to Head
AWAY Manchester United EU Bookmakers 14%
+7% / +12% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -27% / -27%
1.99/0.65 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.81/1.21
+31% / +150% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -12% / +25%
57% Ball Possession 43%
16 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 4
421 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 263 · 74%
34.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 27.8
17.7 Crosses 12.6
1.0 Yellow Cards 2.0

Manchester City vs Manchester United Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Manchester City
5W-0D-1L
AWAY Manchester United
3.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
2.57 xG 1.15
65% Ball Possession 35%
18 Total Shots 8
7 Shots on Target 4
8 Corners 3
595 Passes 290
90% Pass Accuracy 80%
43 Box Touches 17
19 Crosses 8
0 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
03.03.2024 Manchester City Manchester City 3-1 HT 0-1 Manchester United Manchester United İNP
29.10.2023 Manchester United Manchester United 0-3 HT 0-1 Manchester City Manchester City İNP
03.06.2023 Manchester City Manchester City 2-1 HT 1-1 Manchester United Manchester United FAK
14.01.2023 Manchester United Manchester United 2-1 HT 0-0 Manchester City Manchester City İNP
02.10.2022 Manchester City Manchester City 6-3 HT 4-0 Manchester United Manchester United İNP
06.03.2022 Manchester City Manchester City 4-1 HT 2-1 Manchester United Manchester United İNP

Manchester City 1-2 Manchester United — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Manchester City
1-2
AWAY Manchester United
1.35 xG 1.59
74% Ball Possession 26%
19 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 5
7 Corners 1
605 Passes 190
91% Pass Accuracy 77%
39 Box Touches 14
24 Crosses 2
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Manchester City vs Manchester United
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Manchester United nicked a narrow win over Manchester City 2-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-2.

Our pre-match lean was Manchester City at 54%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Manchester City had 74% of the ball to Manchester United's 26%, shots finished 19-11, expected goals 1.35 to 1.59.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Manchester City had the better of it with 5 wins. Those games averaged 3.17 goals for Manchester City and 1.33 for Manchester United.

What was the final score of Manchester City vs Manchester United?

Manchester City 1-2 Manchester United in the England - FA Cup on 25/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Manchester City vs Manchester United?

Before kick-off our model rated a Manchester City win the most likely single outcome at about 54%, with the full match-result split Manchester City 54%, draw 25%, Manchester United 21%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5 — while Match Result (Manchester City) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Manchester City) ✓ Over 2.5
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