Lyon 1-2 PSG — Result, Statistics & Match Review — France - Cup, 25 May 2024

Lyon
1-2 HT 0-2
PSG
📅25/05/2024 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 ✗ 2nd Score 1-3 ✗
France - Cup – 2023/2024

Lyon vs PSG Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
22%
4.48
Draw
23%
4.08
Away
55%
1.6
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
40%
2.43
Over 2.5
60%
1.51
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.6
No
47%
2.19
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
20%
5.09
2-3 Goals
36%
1.96
4-5 Goals
30%
2.74
6+ Goals
14%
7.07
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
7%
7.43
1/2 EV+ ✗
8%
19.95
1/X
5%
15.55
X/1
11%
10.75
X/2
13%
4.05
X/X
13%
6.49
2/1
5%
34.5
2/2
33%
1.96
2/X
5%
15.2
Value flag · 1/2 at 19.95 — our 8% vs market 2.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
22%
Home Win
20%
+3.0pp
23%
Draw
22%
+1.1pp
55%
Away Win
59%
-4.1pp
40%
Under 2.5
38%
+2.3pp
60%
Over 2.5
62%
-2.3pp
53%
BTTS Yes
58%
-5.6pp
47%
BTTS No
42%
+5.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Lyon v PSG — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Lyon EU Bookmakers 22%
Head to Head
AWAY PSG EU Bookmakers 62%
+25% / +25% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +15% / +14%
1.63/2.02 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.94/1.12
+53% / -1% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +64% / +0%
41% Ball Possession 59%
10 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 4
291 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 532 · 86%
26.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 39.6
12.0 Crosses 18.2
2.2 Yellow Cards 2.2

Lyon vs PSG Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Lyon
1W-1D-4L
AWAY PSG
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
1.31 xG 2.14
36% Ball Possession 64%
13 Total Shots 16
5 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 6
335 Passes 651
85% Pass Accuracy 92%
27 Box Touches 33
11 Crosses 14
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
21.04.2024 PSG PSG 4-1 HT 4-1 Lyon Lyon FR1
03.09.2023 Lyon Lyon 1-4 HT 0-4 PSG PSG FR1
02.04.2023 PSG PSG 0-1 HT 0-0 Lyon Lyon FR1
18.09.2022 Lyon Lyon 0-1 HT 0-1 PSG PSG FR1
09.01.2022 Lyon Lyon 1-1 HT 1-0 PSG PSG FR1
19.09.2021 PSG PSG 2-1 HT 0-0 Lyon Lyon FR1

Lyon 1-2 PSG — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Lyon
1-2
AWAY PSG
0.68 xG 3.12
32% Ball Possession 68%
10 Total Shots 28
2 Shots on Target 11
6 Corners 5
266 Passes 715
77% Pass Accuracy 92%
18 Box Touches 54
19 Crosses 15
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Lyon vs PSG
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

PSG squeezed past Lyon 2-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-2.

As we said in the preview, our model had PSG as the likeliest winner at 55%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (60%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Lyon had 32% of the ball to PSG's 68%, shots finished 10-28, expected goals 0.68 to 3.12 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold PSG's control.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, PSG led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Lyon and 2.00 for PSG.

What was the final score of Lyon vs PSG?

Lyon 1-2 PSG in the France - Cup on 25/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Lyon vs PSG?

Before kick-off our model rated an PSG win the most likely single outcome at about 55%, with the full match-result split Lyon 22%, draw 23%, PSG 55%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (PSG), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (PSG) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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