PSG 4-1 Lyon — Result, Statistics & Match Review — France - Ligue 1, 21 Apr 2024

PSG
4-1 HT 4-1
Lyon
📅21/04/2024 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-1 ✗ 2nd Score 2-2 ✗
France - Ligue 1 – 2023/2024

PSG vs Lyon Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
54%
1.57
Draw
18%
4.08
Away
28%
4.31
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
44%
2.51
Over 2.5
56%
1.48
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.55
No
48%
2.29
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
5.53
2-3 Goals
33%
2.02
4-5 Goals
30%
2.65
6+ Goals
13%
6.35
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
30%
1.96
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
5%
15.35
X/1
13%
4.08
X/2
8%
10.6
X/X
7%
6.83
2/1 EV+ ✗
11%
19.3
2/2
13%
7.08
2/X
7%
15.55
Value flag · 2/1 at 19.3 — our 11% vs market 2.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Over 2.5 ★★★ BTTS Yes ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
54%
Home Win
59%
-5.0pp
18%
Draw
21%
-2.9pp
28%
Away Win
20%
+7.9pp
44%
Under 2.5
36%
+8.1pp
56%
Over 2.5
64%
-8.1pp
52%
BTTS Yes
60%
-8.8pp
48%
BTTS No
40%
+8.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

PSG v Lyon — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME PSG EU Bookmakers 64%
Head to Head
AWAY Lyon EU Bookmakers 23%
+1% / -14% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +7% / +2%
1.89/1.08 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.99/1.66
+17% / -10% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -19% / +10%
53% Ball Possession 47%
15 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
388 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 318 · 79%
30.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.8
15.7 Crosses 14.0
1.9 Yellow Cards 2.1

PSG vs Lyon Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME PSG
4W-1D-1L
AWAY Lyon
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.97 xG 1.26
63% Ball Possession 37%
16 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 3
626 Passes 336
91% Pass Accuracy 84%
30 Box Touches 24
13 Crosses 10
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
03.09.2023 Lyon Lyon 1-4 HT 0-4 PSG PSG FR1
02.04.2023 PSG PSG 0-1 HT 0-0 Lyon Lyon FR1
18.09.2022 Lyon Lyon 0-1 HT 0-1 PSG PSG FR1
09.01.2022 Lyon Lyon 1-1 HT 1-0 PSG PSG FR1
19.09.2021 PSG PSG 2-1 HT 0-0 Lyon Lyon FR1
21.03.2021 Lyon Lyon 2-4 HT 0-2 PSG PSG FR1

PSG 4-1 Lyon — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME PSG
4-1
AWAY Lyon
2.44 xG 1.05
63% Ball Possession 37%
14 Total Shots 16
6 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 10
692 Passes 372
93% Pass Accuracy 88%
35 Box Touches 39
13 Crosses 17
POST-MATCH PSG vs Lyon
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

PSG cruised past Lyon 4-1. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Just as the model leaned, our model had PSG as the likeliest winner at 54%, and the 4-1 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (56%) came in.

On the day, PSG had 63% of the ball to Lyon's 37%, shots finished 14-16, expected goals 2.44 to 1.05.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, PSG had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for PSG and 1.00 for Lyon.

What was the final score of PSG vs Lyon?

PSG 4-1 Lyon in the France - Ligue 1 on 21/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for PSG vs Lyon?

Before kick-off our model rated a PSG win the most likely single outcome at about 54%, with the full match-result split PSG 54%, draw 18%, Lyon 28%. The final score 4-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (PSG), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (PSG) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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