Reims 1-2 Montpellier — Result, Statistics & Match Review — France - Ligue 1, 21 Apr 2024

Reims
1-2 HT 0-1
Montpellier
📅21/04/2024 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 0-1 ✗
France - Ligue 1 – 2023/2024

Reims vs Montpellier Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
2.12
Draw
26%
3.45
Away
32%
2.9
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
2.21
Over 2.5
44%
1.6
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.53
No
53%
2.33
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
30%
4.49
2-3 Goals
38%
1.9
4-5 Goals
22%
2.91
6+ Goals
10%
8.46
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.49 — our 30% vs market 17.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
25%
2.96
1/2
6%
28.5
1/X
10%
12.5
X/1
11%
5.14
X/2
14%
6.67
X/X
7%
5.33
2/1
6%
23.15
2/2
13%
4.26
2/X
8%
12.7
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
43%
-1.3pp
26%
Draw
26%
-0.0pp
32%
Away Win
31%
+1.4pp
56%
Under 2.5
41%
+14.8pp
44%
Over 2.5
59%
-14.8pp
47%
BTTS Yes
61%
-14.4pp
53%
BTTS No
39%
+14.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Reims v Montpellier — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Reims EU Bookmakers 47%
Head to Head
AWAY Montpellier EU Bookmakers 34%
-4% / -1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +6% / +21%
1.52/1.02 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.14/1.46
-14% / +23% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +26% / +20%
51% Ball Possession 49%
12 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
318 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 327 · 77%
21.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 14.9
20.4 Crosses 15.9
2.1 Yellow Cards 2.1

Reims vs Montpellier Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Reims
1W-4D-1L
AWAY Montpellier
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.41 xG 1.49
50% Ball Possession 50%
14 Total Shots 15
6 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 7
320 Passes 304
78% Pass Accuracy 76%
20 Box Touches 25
20 Crosses 23
2 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
27.08.2023 Montpellier Montpellier 1-3 HT 1-2 Reims Reims FR1
03.06.2023 Reims Reims 1-3 HT 1-0 Montpellier Montpellier FR1
13.11.2022 Montpellier Montpellier 1-1 HT 0-0 Reims Reims FR1
17.04.2022 Montpellier Montpellier 0-0 HT 0-0 Reims Reims FR1
15.08.2021 Reims Reims 3-3 HT 2-3 Montpellier Montpellier FR1
28.02.2021 Reims Reims 0-0 HT 0-0 Montpellier Montpellier FR1

Reims 1-2 Montpellier — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Reims
1-2
AWAY Montpellier
1.46 xG 1.61
53% Ball Possession 47%
21 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
8 Corners 4
280 Passes 253
81% Pass Accuracy 78%
29 Box Touches 20
33 Crosses 15
3 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Reims vs Montpellier
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Montpellier edged past Reims 2-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match lean was Reims at 42%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Reims had 53% of the ball to Montpellier's 47%, shots finished 21-12, expected goals 1.46 to 1.61.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece, 4 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Reims and 1.33 for Montpellier.

What was the final score of Reims vs Montpellier?

Reims 1-2 Montpellier in the France - Ligue 1 on 21/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Reims vs Montpellier?

Before kick-off our model rated a Reims win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Reims 42%, draw 26%, Montpellier 32%. The final score 1-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Reims) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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